German friends of peace are currently speaking up. They demand to lay down arms and surrender besieged Ukraine. But that would be the end of Europe. Because anyone who wants to make a new pact with Putin will only get more war.
Imagine Russian troops taking Kyiv, Putin installing a North Korean satrap regime like in the already occupied areas, 8 to 10 million Ukrainians permanently flee to EU countries. Russia controls the entire Black Sea coast of Ukraine and also annexes Transnistria, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Ukraine ceases to exist as an independent state. Russia is exacerbating the world food crisis at will as it dominates the trade in wheat from Ukraine. Russia throws people into the streets at will in Europe whose existence is threatened by dramatic inflation and a recession. Romania, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia mark NATO’s new external borders, with almost daily violations of airspace. Putin is opening a second front in Syria’s Idlib region, where three to four million people are cut off from humanitarian aid and are rushing to Jordan, Iraq, Lebanon and via Turkey to Europe.
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In the USA, President Biden is coming under pressure, the Republicans under Trump control both houses after the midterm elections. America first – not Ukraine. The left, the AfD, parts of the SPD and the evangelical church are organizing large-scale demonstrations for “peace with Russia” and for the quick commissioning of Nord Stream II. Chancellor Scholz’s approval ratings are in the basement, the core electorate of the SPD is threatening to go on strike. The coalition of SPD, FDP and Greens is in danger of collapsing. Federal President Steinmeier invites you to Bellevue Palace, where Ben Becker will perform Yevtushenko’s poem “Do you think the Russians want war?” Martin Walser receives the Federal Cross of Merit on the occasion.
The political scientist Andreas Heinemann-Grüder is a professor at the Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn at the Institute for Political Science and Sociology. Between 2010 and 2012 he was head of the Bonn/Cologne Academy for Conflict Transformation. His research focuses on peace and conflict research, authoritarian political regimes and comparative federalism research. Heinemann-Grüder is active in political consulting, including as a member of the Advisory Board for Civilian Crisis Prevention at the Federal Foreign Office.
A gender-sensitive embassy consisting of Alice Schwarzer, Richard Precht, Ulrike Guerot and Sarah Wagenknecht travels to Vladimir Putin to present the German people’s desire for peace. Gerhard Schröder, Antje Vollmer and Otto Schily intercede for the reception of the peace delegation in the Kremlin. The Council President of the EKD prays for the silence of the guns. In urgent special programs, German talk shows ask whether Putin will give up under the moral pressure and negotiating skills of Schwarzer, Precht and Wagenknecht. Putin swears that nothing is more important to him than peace with Germany. Chancellor Scholz assures that in the “ring exchange” he never promised more than 20 older Leopard tanks for Poland, one tank per month, and not before April 2023. Nobody can blame the SPD for not always acting according to the motto: ” Make peace without weapons”.
The reality: After two to three months of silence on the part of the “friends of peace” they are now raising their voices again, those who think that you have to give Putin what he wants, then he would go from Saul to Paul, but not to Ukraine Putin ‑ preach “Down with your arms!” and want to “freeze” the conflict so that Ukraine can be demilitarized the way Putin wants it to be. Those who disguise their own cynical apathy as pro-Ukraine neutrality are coming forward. They are assuming Putin’s victory and are therefore demanding the surrender of the besieged Ukraine, although it has now held out for more than five months, shameful for the lobbyists of a way to the slaughterhouse.
Also read: PUSH – Replica of “Ceasefire Now!” – Heavy Weapons Now!
Those who shouted “never again” to Slobodan Milosevic and Saddam Hussein are back, but are actually proposing to Putin a new Hitler-Stalin pact, this time to “save” Ukraine. Putin had put the peace friends out of work, the psychotherapists at the injured Russian soul. The Tele experts, who have never had anything to do with Russia or Ukraine or who have been selling Lenor rinses for Putin for years, are experiencing a revival. If they had their way, peace would come when the rape victim stopped fighting the rapist. Supposedly it doesn’t hurt much, according to the advisors for such human experiments. Responsibility ethics are claimed by those who would never pay the price for their own advice.
One thing unites us, even if the answer couldn’t be more antagonistic: we have to see the war from the end. So far, Germany’s top reason of state, before and since the war, has been “Without me”, despite all cheap rhetoric. Surrendering Ukraine and a victory for Putin would of course be the end of Europe, the permanent division and systemic blackmailing of the West. Not only the peace of mind of the detente politicians would be disturbed. Whoever wants to sign a new pact with Putin will only get more war.
Russia’s and Europe’s only chance is in Putin’s defeat. Only as a result of a defeat will the regime change, open up and face up to its imperialism, militarism and its culture of violence. Historically, regime change in Russia has only taken place as a result of defeats: in the Turkish-Russian War of 1853-56, in the Russo-Japanese War of 1904/05, in the First World War of 1917/18 and in the Afghan War (1979-1987). Only as a result of a defeat will Russia be accepted back into the European family of nations. Russia’s petrostate is finished – a matter of time, the Ukraine war is the regime’s endgame. Putin’s petrostate saves the regime just as little as German peace epistles.
Putin has no reason to back down as long as he knows he is on the road to victory militarily. Ukraine’s resilience stands and falls with the resilience of the West. Security in Europe is not possible with Putin, but only against Putin. Defeating Putin means containment, the imposition of reparations, and a technology embargo pending full payment. The international isolation of Russia is not hopeless.
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The “multipolar” world feels Russia’s weakness: Turkey, Iran, China, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, everyone notices: Putin is no longer a cook but a waiter, a local power bound by the Ukraine conflict. Putin has no friends anymore, only the puppet Lukashenka (the President of Belarus). A “defeat” does not mean unconditional surrender or a return to the status quo ante. However, Russia’s ability to project military power may be drastically weakened as a result of the war.
That must never be repeated. The post-war peace order will be based only on the equality of nations, not on Russia’s spheres of influence or Putin’s nuclear terror peace. A peace agreement can only be concluded between Ukraine and Russia, not a German “peace friend” with colonial or German national arrogance. The battlefield will dictate the terms of peace. Any robust military mission that will guarantee Ukraine’s future security at the “line of contact” must be assertive against Russia. “Freezing” the conflict with the OSCE used to mean nothing but a thaw for Putin. The mafia has never been stopped by the Catholic Church.
Also read: Guest article Gabor Steingart – doubtful instead of principled: How the “turn of the era” creates a new type of politician
Putin considered the price of his wars from 2008 against Georgia, from 2015 in Syria, 2014/15 in Ukraine and since February 24, 2022 to be justifiable and calculable. The international community of states could and should guarantee peace – which they have never wanted to do for fear of Putin. Peace towards Russia can only be enforced if Putin respects the guarantors of peace. China for example. This is what needs to be invested in today.
