Especially for “the Russian newspaper” Alexander Razuvaev, head of IAC “Alpari”, cited several actions of the Russian authorities needed to stabilize the ruble.
the Central Bank will publish data on the restrictions on banks to attract deposits
Today the demand for the ruble supports sales of foreign currency by exporters and their preparation for the dividend payment in the summer of 2020, – said the expert. And the fact that the Bank of Russia has not changed its key rate in late March, leaving it at the level of 6 percent indicates stability. This is a very good signal to all market participants and the public. With high probability the key rate will remain unchanged in April.
If you look at the oil futures, then we should expect the growth of quotations of black gold. It is obvious that what is happening today pumping the money supply from the fed the U.S. economy will support demand for oil, the Russian ruble and many other assets.
the Russian securities of the largest blue chips in March is much cheaper. Today international investment funds to gradually “pick up” the shares of large Russian companies. This means that the demand for rubles from foreign market participants will slowly grow.
of Course, the crisis caused by the coronavirus and falling demand, very serious. For Russia, it was doubly painful, as it coincided with the fall in oil prices. Macroeconomic statistics and corporate reports for the first quarter will be weak. However, the stock market probably has already priced that into the price.
Panic on the currency market, the scenario of December 2014, when the ruble has set new record lows, is not repeated. However, the market pessimism is now very much. And in the coming months is likely to wait for high volatility.
US Department of energy expects the decrease in oil production in the country
In the framework of the market mechanism I would have returned the mandatory sale of currency earnings of exporters in the amount of 25-50%. This would further strengthen the ruble and to lower the dollar to 70-72 rubles in mid-spring.
to Negotiate with trump and Saudi Arabia difficult, they lack not only respect for the partners, but also economic logic. If the members of OPEC+ and the North America will find common language, we will see oil at 40-42 per barrel Brent. If not, we will see oil at $ 10-15. And then the moment the US dollar will soar under 88-90 rubles. Let’s see how this situation will concern the Bank of Russia.
to Support the ruble in the case of the stress can be due to currency selling by the largest Russian state exporters. And recommend the largest Russian private companies to transfer part of a position in dollars into rubles.
I am Confident that oil will soon be above $ 40, and in 2021 – in the range of 60-80 dollars per barrel Brent. This means that an optimistic Outlook can still be given. And to assume that the dollar by the end of 2020, will be traded in the range of 65-70 rubles.
