The federal ministers argue openly about the importance of Germany’s energy sources. Anyone who thinks there should be clarity about this is mistaken. We sort the arguments according to their truthfulness.
The European Union’s crisis plan is in place: from August 2022 to March 2023, the member states want to use 15 percent less gas than the average of the past five years. The discussion among the EU countries was similarly controversial as in Germany. In this country, the government is not arguing against the coalition, as is usual, but there are also fundamentally different views within the traffic light coalition. The arguments seem contradictory to some.
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When trying to separate facts from claims, the first thing to know is that the energy discussion is complicated because it involves four levels. And depending on what suits someone on a talk show, they’ll use an argument for one or the other.
The Greens argue that nuclear power does not solve the main problem because there is no shortage of electricity in this country, but of gas. The FDP, for example, in the person of Finance Minister Christian Lindner, counters: “In the coming years we will not have an excess of affordable electricity. Therefore we should secure every capacity.”
Now, “affordable” is a relative term. One thing is certain: the electricity price is climbing. For the fourth quarter, a megawatt hour cost almost 600 euros on the exchange, which is an increase of 580 percent compared to the previous year. And that is directly related to gas supplies. Whenever renewable energies, coal-fired power plants and nuclear power plants do not supply enough electricity, gas-fired power plants step in. The price of electricity is very similar to that of gas.
The fact is: the price of electricity and the shortage of gas are closely related.
As of Wednesday, only 20 percent of the natural gas that is possible will flow through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. Now the four leading economic institutes (IWH Halle, RWI Essen, IfW Kiel and Ifo Munich) have calculated how Germany will get through the winter when it comes to the 20th percent remains. And the reassuring answer is: It should be enough.
Only in an unlikely, pessimistic scenario could gas supply gaps occur in April, May and December 2023. And this risk can also be eliminated if consumption in this country is throttled by twelve percent. That is very likely, after all, Germany has committed itself within the framework of the EU to consume 15 percent less from August. It only becomes difficult if the Federal Republic forwards gas to neighboring countries, i.e. if it helps other EU countries. According to the advice of the four institutes, one should not feel safe.
nuclear power? Yes, please!
Fact: We will probably get through the winter without a gap.
Three nuclear power plants are still in operation: Neckarwestheim 2, Emsland and Isar 2. According to the current legal situation, they must be taken off the grid by the end of 2022. This year they generate six percent of the electricity in Germany. A good ten percent of the electricity is produced from gas. As of today, the other electricity generators have to do at least 16 percent more. If the electricity consumption were to remain stable, which hardly anyone assumes, a noticeably higher consumption is expected in 2023.
The expansion of renewable energies is progressing so slowly that wind power and the like will not bring any significant relief in the short term. So there are still two noteworthy options: Either the coal-fired power plants have to do more, which releases CO2. Or the nuclear power plants run longer, which produces nuclear waste. Incidentally, generating electricity from coal is significantly more expensive than using nuclear power plants.
The fact is: Longer terms would save CO2, save money, but generate nuclear waste.
The federal government’s first stress test from March to May eased the situation. Despite the nuclear phase-out and declining gas supplies, the demand in this country is secured. But what if the demand for electricity increases dramatically?
A second stress test, so to speak, with more pessimistic assumptions should show this in the coming weeks. Reason for skepticism is justified: Germans are currently buying alternative heat sources such as fan heaters – and they consume a very large amount of electricity.
The fact is: We don’t know what can happen – previous calculations were probably too optimistic.
In March, the Federal Ministries for the Environment and Economics examined the conditions under which the three reactors could continue to run beyond December 31, 2022. With the result: only if they reduce electricity production beforehand. The Society for Plant and Reactor Safety considers a stretching operation for 80 days to be possible.
Green politicians like party leader Omid Nouripour point out that “the last security check was 13 years ago”. In fact, the review of the kiln, which is due every ten years, was suspended in 2019 because it was nearing its end. The industry association for nuclear technology points out that a new supply of fuel rods would take about a year from the order. But here there would be other ways to take care of yourself. However, continued operation is no longer possible without gaps – politicians should have decided earlier. Chancellor and minister are now waiting for the result of the second stress test.
Fact: The stretching operation is complicated, but possible.
There are highly profitable companies in Germany, especially in the Dax. But the median of the net return on sales is 3.3 percent. From a turnover of 100 euros, 3.30 euros remain. Industrial companies spend between two and ten percent of their turnover on energy, and nursing home operators ten to 20 percent.
It quickly becomes clear that many companies slide into the red very quickly when electricity costs increase sixfold, not to mention gas. Those who do not have a significant part of their production in countries that are not affected by these high energy prices are threatened with existential competitive disadvantages.
The fact is that many companies are threatened with insolvency.
The coalition agreement states that the previous date for phasing out the production of electricity by coal-fired power plants will “ideally” be brought forward from 2038 to 2030. Since the outbreak of war there can no longer be any talk of “ideal”. Nevertheless, the coalition wants to stick to 2030. That might even work.
A conceivable scenario would be: In the short term, i.e. in the next five years, fewer coal-fired power plants will be taken off the grid than planned. And when the infrastructure for the liquid gas LNG is in place, the exit could be all the faster.
Fact: 2030 is still possible, but it requires political will and could become more expensive.
The Federal Government’s “Gas Emergency Plan” clearly stipulates that the heating in private households is only switched off when practically everything else has come to a standstill. They are just as protected as hospitals and other institutions that provide social services.
This worst-case scenario is not impossible, but improbable. Another piece of paper says that gas prices will increase significantly. Energy suppliers are allowed to pass on costs with a short period of advance warning.
Fact: The gas heaters in private households are the last to be switched off.
A secure power supply with renewable energies is technically possible in Germany, but that will take a long time. We are currently at 45 percent. Above all, options are needed when wind and electricity do not provide enough. Biogas or “green” hydrogen are known alternatives, but are not yet available in the required quantities. In addition, we not only need electricity, but also heat – and here the gap is even greater.
In view of this, many people keep talking about the fusion reactor: a kind of artificial sun, safe and inexhaustible nuclear energy. Is she really on the verge of a technological breakthrough? Around three dozen companies around the world are working on the implementation, but there is not even a clear timetable. Although there could be the first experimental reactors in 2035, they are far from commercial use.
Fact: We have to expand wind, sun and co. as quickly as possible.
According to the Federal Association for Natural Gas, Oil and Geoenergy, in 2001 21 percent of gas consumption came from domestic sources. In 2011 it was 14, in 2021 only five percent. This quota could be increased again, but only to a small extent and with considerable problems.
On the one hand, inventories have shrunk sharply. On the other hand, the tightened approval procedures cannot be accelerated so easily. There is a dispute within the coalition about the exploration of new gas fields in the North Sea. That was excluded in the coalition agreement. Today FDP leader Lindner calls the rejection “out of date”.
The fact is: a few percent is possible, but it would take time.
