The Rhine is not even a meter deep in places. As a result, many transport ships are currently unable to sail, or not fully loaded. This becomes a problem for companies based along the Rhine, but also for consumers – even those who don’t even live near the river. You need to know that.
Due to the current heat wave and little rain in recent weeks, the water level of the Rhine has dropped significantly. In several places, for example near Koblenz, the level is less than one meter. Levels of 1.50 to 2 meters would be normal here at this time of the year. Although the Rhine still carries more water than in autumn 2018, when the lowest water levels since records began, it is now moving into this range. At the important Kaub measuring point near Koblenz, it was only 25 centimeters in 2018. The level here is currently 51 centimetres.
The Rhine is important for German inland shipping. Many large industrial centers are located on the river and use it to be supplied with raw materials. Examples include the main BASF plant in Ludwigshafen and the ThyssenKrupp blast furnaces in Duisburg. However, fully loaded transport ships have a certain draft, i.e. reach a certain length below the water surface.
This draft is now well above what is still possible in some places in the Rhine. A fully loaded transport ship needs at least 1.50 meters. This is no longer guaranteed everywhere. As a result, many inland waterway skippers only sail with half or a quarter of the normal load. Deliveries are delayed accordingly because the same route has to be covered several times.
Industrial companies that use the Rhine for deliveries first have to pay more money. Because ships have to sail more frequently, the supply of free freighters is lower and prices rise accordingly. The transport in a liquid tanker from Rotterdam to Karlsruhe still cost 20 euros per ton in June. Most recently it was 94 euros, almost 50 times as much.
The second disadvantage for the industry: Because ships can transport fewer goods, deliveries are delayed so much that they sometimes don’t arrive in time for production. The supply is still sufficient nationwide, but there are already individual failures.
Uniper reported that there could be irregularities in the Datteln 4 and Staudinger 5 power plants by September 7th. The two plants are operated with coal, which is normally delivered via the Rhine. The transport is currently not running as required. BASF, the specialty chemicals group Evonik and ThyssenKrupp have so far been able to maintain production from stocks and other sources. “However, we cannot completely rule out reductions in the production rates of individual plants for the next few weeks,” a BASF spokeswoman told DW.
Although the entire water network used for inland shipping in Germany measures around 6550 kilometers and includes rivers as well as canals, 80 percent of all goods transport takes place on the Rhine. Its water levels are therefore of the utmost importance for the German economy. Along with parts of the Elbe, the Weser, the Trave and the Kiel Canal, it is the only waterway that even the largest inland vessels can navigate.
If inland shipping is so essential for German industry, consumers are of course not unaffected by low water levels. A study by Gießen economists from 2019, for example, shows that the low water period in 2018 led to a noticeable increase in diesel prices in the Rhine metropolis of Cologne, although oil prices fell noticeably at the time. At that time, the Cologne level recorded a record low of just 69 centimeters. The economists cited the lack of transport options over water and, as a result, more expensive alternative transport over land as the reason.
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Even now, the low water is likely to put a further strain on consumers’ wallets – again primarily at the pump. Because of the sluggish movement of goods via the shipping lanes, less diesel and heating oil are currently arriving in Bavaria, for example, as reported by Bayerischer Rundfunk at the beginning of the month. In East Bavaria there is currently a bottleneck at some gas stations.
Of course, the goods could also be transported by truck or freight train. But the low water levels come at an inopportune time: Due to Corona, there are currently many failures among the train drivers. Truck drivers have long been in short supply anyway. The industry is running out of young talent, which is why, according to associations, there are already up to 100,000 drivers missing. There are various reasons behind the developments: on the one hand, the wages are not very attractive, on the other hand, the working conditions are tough and the image of the industry is bad.
Experts are currently assuming that water levels will continue to fall. The Federal Institute for Hydrology currently estimates water levels of 44 centimeters in two weeks for the Kaub measuring point. The Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration does not forecast significantly rising water levels for any measuring point on the Rhine in the coming period. If the rain stays away long enough, the record levels from 2018 are definitely within reach.
When the record lows were reached in 2018, Germany’s total industrial production fell by 1.5 percent. The Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) expects a drop of 1.0 percent if the water levels are too low for at least 30 days. That may not sound like much, but with a monthly turnover in the manufacturing industry in Germany of around 180 billion euros per month, one percent already accounts for 1.8 billion euros.
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