Economists have calculated that the probability of a supply shortfall in natural gas in the event of a Russian supply freeze is far lower than in April. Although not all risks have been averted, the first scientists are now calling for the tables to be turned and Putin to be put a gun to his chest.
According to a study by leading economic researchers, the probability of a supply gap with natural gas in the event of a stop to Russian deliveries is significantly lower than in April. However, despite better-filled storage facilities, not all risks for the gas supply to industry in the winter half-year have been banned, the Munich Ifo Institute, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), the Essen RWI and the IWH Halle announced on Tuesday based on new simulation calculations . As a countermeasure, the economists recommend, among other things, “to let the price signals reach consumers promptly” – i.e. to increase prices so that less gas is consumed.
The reason for the more favorable forecast is that the gas storage facilities in Germany are now much better filled. As the website of Europe’s gas infrastructure operator (GIE) revealed on Monday evening, the storage facilities were 60.26 percent full.
However, the supply of the industry is not yet completely certain. If deliveries were to stop immediately, there would still be a 20 percent probability of a gas gap of at least 23.8 terawatt hours (TWh) with a loss of value added of 46 billion euros for the economy. In the most negative scenario, it would even be almost 160 TWh and 283 billion euros.
On the other hand, the simulations give the all-clear for scenarios in which the Russian deliveries, which are currently reduced to 40 percent, are continued: “Then there is no threat of gas bottlenecks for the industry, even in the case of unfavorable constellations.”
Because the storage has exceeded the threshold of 60 percent, the first economists are now even calling for a counterattack. Georg Zachmann, energy expert at the Brussels consulting firm Bruegel, says in the “Welt”: The European Union should bundle gas purchases for all member states and then make a tough announcement to the Kremlin. Either Putin sells for 50 euros per megawatt hour – or not at all. The EU should therefore set up a realistic threat scenario, according to the expert.
According to Zachmann, Putin will think twice before rejecting such a price ultimatum. Because if he did, it would be clear that Europe would never buy gas from him again. That would also pose risks for Europe, but we would have to prepare for a complete failure of Russian deliveries anyway, says Zachmann.
Because even now only roughly a third of gas imports come from Russia, such an approach is now conceivable. “A clear announcement and a clear cut would also make many things easier,” says the Bruegel expert. The discussion about the reactivation of coal-fired power plants and the possible extension of nuclear power plants would then be decided quickly. “When everything is on the table, there will finally be clear conditions and thus more planning security.”
