Gerhard Schröder has done it again. He traveled to Moscow and said he met Russian President Vladimir Putin. Schröder says the Kremlin boss is aiming for a negotiated solution in the Ukraine war. Experts take a critical view of this.
Negotiating with Vladimir Putin? Until recently, that was hardly an option in the Ukraine war. For six months, Russian troops have been attacking the people of Ukraine, destroying cities, roads and bridges.
Talks between Ukrainian and Russian delegations that took place in March this year ended without concrete results. The news that Moscow would seek a diplomatic solution to the military conflict was all the more surprising.
It comes from former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder (SPD), who is not only a lobbyist, but also a friend of Putin. As the politician explained in an interview with “Stern” and RTL/ntv, he met the Russian head of state last week.
Now save articles for later in “Pocket”.
“The good news is that the Kremlin wants a negotiated solution,” said Schröder. He described the recently reached agreement between the warring parties on grain exports from Ukraine as a “first success” that might “slowly expand into a ceasefire”.
But is the former chancellor’s confidence justified, and is his assessment realistic?
“Basically, I assume that negotiations with Putin are possible,” says Alexander Libman in an interview with FOCUS Online. He works as a professor of political science with a focus on Eastern Europe and Russia at the Freie Universität Berlin (FU).
Wars are not absolutely necessary for the continued existence of the Russian regime, “and the war in Ukraine hardly brings any domestic political dividends and enormous economic disadvantages for Putin”. In addition, the expert explains, the Kremlin chief has changed his foreign policy positions several times in the past.
For example, in the 2000s, during her Afghanistan deployment, Putin was still working with the US, facilitating the resupply of US troops through Russian territory. At the time he obviously attached great importance to good relations with the United States, but things are different today.
According to Libman, however, Russia’s current willingness to negotiate – just like that of Ukraine – is rather low. “Both sides believe that they can turn the situation on the battlefield in their favor.”
A change of mind is possible, however, especially in view of the dynamic war situation. Libman therefore believes it is important to keep the conversation thread going with the Kremlin – and to “look for areas where de-escalation is possible – the grain deal in particular was a good example of this”.
Russia expert Hans-Henning Schröder also emphasizes the agreement, which is intended to enable grain exports from Ukraine. In an interview with FOCUS Online, he describes it as a “touchstone that shows whether Russia and Ukraine are ready to honor agreements”.
Among other things, Schröder worked at the German Institute for International Politics and Security (SWP) in Berlin, where he headed the Russia/CIS research group until 2012.
Like Libman, however, he does not expect negotiations between Russia and Ukraine to start soon. “So far it does not appear that the Russian leadership can make any concessions, nor can the Ukrainian leadership make compromises.” In his opinion, talks about a ceasefire, which his namesake Gerhard Schröder optimistically promised, are “still a long way off “.
Surf tip: You can find all the news about the corona pandemic in the FOCUS Online news ticker
In any case, negotiations could only take place under certain conditions, both experts agree. “Decisions on concessions or interim solutions are of course only made by Ukraine and cannot be decided behind its back,” says Libman.
He also recognizes several points on which Kremlin boss Putin is unlikely to give in. “First of all, it is about Crimea. It’s hard for me to imagine that he is willing to give the area back to Ukraine,” says the political scientist. He also sees the neutrality of Ukraine and the permanent renunciation of NATO membership as essential positions of Putin.
“At the same time, it is inconceivable that Ukraine will be willing to accept the permanent Russian occupation in the south of the country or even formally recognize the Russian annexation of Crimea.” Nevertheless, the price for a dispute that would continue for months, if not years, would be high , says Libman.
Because one thing is clear: there is enormous human suffering in Ukraine, and the economic costs of the war are high. Also for Russia, which is facing one of the biggest recessions in recent decades. In addition, Germany and the EU run the risk of slipping into an economic crisis due to a lack of raw materials.
The situation is tense worldwide because of the Ukraine war. Former Chancellor Schröder still doesn’t see the need to distance himself from Putin, as he explained to the journalists from Stern, RTL and ntv. He also spoke about his own role in the Ukraine war.
“Why should I stop talks that are legally possible and don’t get me and my family into trouble?” said the SPD politician. And: “I made decisions there, and I stand by them, and I made it clear: maybe I can be useful again”.
Schröder as an intermediary, would that really be a good idea? And realistic at all? Political scientist Libman considers it “illusory” that the former chancellor could hold such a position. And not just for him. “In general, the ability of Germany and the EU to change the situation is very low,” says Libman.
Of the Western countries, the Kremlin sees only the United States as a negotiating partner “with whom one really wants to talk,” says the expert. Other countries have also offered to act as mediators, including Turkey and Israel.
Political scientist Schröder also says: “Erdogan is already booked for the role of mediator.” But he can imagine another task for the former chancellor – as a “back channel”. “So a way to inform the other side informally and without obligation about one’s own intentions and the limits of one’s own ability to compromise.”