At the peak of the pandemic, the 22. April can be expected on the island per day, with nearly 3000 Dead, explain the scientists at the Institute for Health and Evaluation (IHME), which belongs to the University of Washington in Seattle. This is, however, only the mean value. Due to the uncertainties in the development of the uncertainty range between 27.500 and around 150,000 Victims extends.
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According to the extrapolation 8802 people to August would be in Germany at Corona die
So the UK will rank ahead of Italy (20.300 Dead in the forecast period) and Spain (about 19.200 Dead). In both countries there is stringent contact restrictions than in the United Kingdom. According to the daily mortality rate decreases again. Italy had the top on 27. March, as the 969 people died in Spain, followed on 1. April with 950 deaths. According to the IHME estimates, Germany of which comes with 8802 Victims to August off relatively lightly.
the cause of the bad development in the United Kingdom, the debate on the “herd immunity”, the act first of all, the government (or, better, is not the according to analysts, certain action). They led to measures such as the obligatory adherence to a “social distance” on may 23. March were introduced, as the Death toll amounted to 54 people per day. “In the first Phase of the outbreak in the UK the death increased in cases of steep,” said the IHME. “This is the most important driving force behind the predicted Numbers.” Portugal, however, the distance rule introduced already, as only a Covid-19-related death was confirmed. The pays according to the IHME-forecast: In the country just 471 Deaths were to be expected.
“The hardest-hit countries have the worst behind”
However, model calculations by scientists at the Imperial College London (ICL) come to different results. Accordingly, restrictions on the population were without movement to expect on the island of the 260,000 Dead. After the introduction of these measures, the hope is that the number of victims is around 20,000 lower, there would be a but. “On the IHME forecast, we should not leave us,” said the ICL epidemiologist Neil Ferguson in the Guardian. “The model does not correspond to the Situation in the United Kingdom.”
So, over 33,000 hospital had beds for Covid-19-patients, it is the equivalent of 50 new hospitals, and there is more ventilation would equipment. In addition, the government will provide additional Field wool to build hospitals.
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In the context of the forecast points IHME Director Christopher Murray on the importance of quarantine and other measures. To reduce “the risk of a second wave of places where the first shaft is controlled by a robust social Distance of the governments mass tests, contacts, track, and quarantine Infected isolate, to a mass-produced vaccine is available,” insists Murray. “The hardest-hit countries implemented the measures early and the worst is over, as the decline in death rates.”
Up to the return to normality
is further away in front of us in the States Would change their attitude and the restrictions during the first wave of early loosening is likely the Situation will dramatically worsen, so Murray more. Then new chains of Infection would be incurred, with lots of ventilation requiring patients and the dead. Therefore, there should be an end to the measures only after the Ebb of the wave.
For the countries concerned, that would be hard. Because, according to Murray’s Definition, a wave is finished, if there is less than 0.3 deaths per Million inhabitants. However, according to the Internet portal “Worldometer” die in the UK currently 105 people per Million inhabitants in Spain, 326; in Italy, 292. In contrast, Germany, with 28 deaths per one Million inhabitants, is relatively well. The Figures show, however, that until the return to normality is still a very long way to go.
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