the Consultancy firm, Boston Consulting Group, which is one of the largest in the world, it is estimated that at the peak of the day to day contamination in Belgium is only in the third week of may. And, for the moment, according to the office, and even at the earliest, and ending in the second week of June, at the latest, by the end of July. Optimistic to the end, but the Flemish, virologists pay little faith in the models. “You’ll need that with a grain of salt,” says Steven Van Gucht.
On the basis of the results of coronabesmettingen to do with the Us-based consultancy firm predictions about the “epidemic scenario” for each country, as well as publishing that on the 25th of march. For the hard-hit Spain, they predict that the peak of infection, during the last week of april. In Italy, a week in the past. But in the us? It was only in the third week of may, just as it is in France and the United Kingdom. And the forecast for the end of the lockdown, it also gives little bit of hope.
“But that seems to me to be very, very, very far-reaching,” says virologist is in order: Steven Van Gucht. “I wonder if they will be included in the build-up of immunity. These models should be used with a grain of salt, because it’s the biggest unknown is how many people are already infected, and thus are already immune to it. This will have a major impact on the forecast.”
“May be optimistic”.
Anyway, it looks Van Gucht, as before, to prefer, to the situation in China, than to any of the models. “There it is, ultimately, a two-month period, and were halfway to their peak. Their moment, however, was slightly more stringent than in the us, but that we should be more optimistic than that forecast by the Boston Consulting Group.”
When he thinks that the peak will come? That still just guess work. “What We have now, as of 13 march actions, as it would be reasonable to expect that we are in the middle of may, with fewer measures, it will do it, maybe even before that. As it turns out, we now have a plateaufase have, and the numbers continue to stabilize, although it is still too early to be absolutely sure. We can’t help but have the numbers to follow. And the more of us there are, the more clearly we see that the predictions are able to do so.”
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