It is one of the questions, which these days is discussed, both in the prime minister’s office and out in the Danish home. A majority outside the government has demanded that the government submit a bid on an exit strategy from the corona-decommissioning.
in Order to be clued in to the situation, B. T. talked with Lars Jørgen Østergaard, who is a professor in infectious diseases, and Bo Sandemann Rasmussen, a professor at the Department of Economics at Aarhus University.
The two experts to assess five possible strategies to re-open Denmark.
Scenario #1: We are in the home for a year
the Danes will continue under the current restrictions, until there is a vaccine.
“the Infection will be limited, but the danes should be at home in the country yet. To find a vaccine and an effective treatment against the virus will at least take a year, if we are insanely fast. You will need to first test that the cure does not kill people.”.
“If we live a whole year on the way, we will see a decrease of about 10 to 20 percent of gross domestic product. It will be a decline, as we simply do not have seen in Denmark in recent times. The financial crisis will be a relatively modest decline for the comparison.”
“Many businesses will turn the key on, and the unemployment rate will be very large. Once the crisis is over, it will because of the closure take a long time to get the economy back to the level before the coronakrisen.”
Scenario # 2: We open Denmark up and do like we used to
All restrictions will be lifted now. The danes return to work and school. Shops open again, and opens again for the borders.
“We will probably see it, as happens in northern Italy. We get a health care system that burns together. Many will get sick and die. Both those with coronaviruses and those who suffer from something else. Experience shows that it is not only old and weak who succumb to coronasmitten, but also younger and middle-aged. But in the course of three to four months it is over. The vast majority will be immune.”
“If there is no infection, we will fast be able to return to the economy we had before the crisis, but if syghusvæsenet breaks down, it can have major economic consequences. If many are sick, it will pull down in the effective employment and the framework production.”
Scenario #3: Society closes even more down.
The current restrictions to be extended with a curfew, internal travel bans in Denmark and the prohibition to gather more than two people.
“the Infection will be limited even more – also regional, so there is no infection from Zealand to Jutland.”
“If people are still allowed to go to work, is it not safe, it has the major economic impact.”
“That is closed down in advance, so it is difficult to see that there are additional costs than the ones we have already.”
Scenario #4: We open the part up after easter
Work and school running again after easter. Stores open, but there is still a prohibition to meet in large gatherings and the borders are still closed.
“To know what the consequences will be, requires extensive data and calculations. The art is to shut up as you have a health care system that can keep up with. On the way the population is gradually becoming more immune. Half of the danes should probably be immune, before epidimien begins to decline.”
“There will still not tourists to the country, but if people can go out and get a cup of coffee, it will give a number of companies an opportunity to survive. It will prevent some businesses from closing,and it will improve our employment opportunities for the rest of the year.”
Scenario #5: Denmark opens first, gradually up after the summer break
The current restrictions to be extended. Schools, day care centers and shops opened up after the summer break.
“It is complicated to assess how big the impact it will have to wait until after the summer holidays. There are great many buttons to turn on, and there is no living, who have tried it before. If it pulls out, can an option be to divide the population up into immune and non-immune and let the immune return to society.”
“Companies will go under, particularly in the hotel and catering industry. You are going to be missing some jobs, because the businesses are closed. We get therefore a slower return to order, because we are lacking companies that can get jobs again.”
