Mood and the plans of the growers in the Central Federal district, Volga region and South of the country found by the compilers of the next “development Index of agricultural producers of Russia”. The survey involved the head of one hundred leading enterprises. “Rossiyskaya Gazeta” discussed the situation with experts.
“the Barometer of the mood” showed that farmers have become more cautious in their assessments of their successes. This season they have appreciated by 3.61 points (in agriculture, the season lasts from the first of July of the previous year until the first of July of the current). A year earlier to 3.67 points.
the Most high over all the time of research, this index was in 2016 – 3,89.
“Then the industry received the maximum effect from the devaluation of the ruble and counter, plus were lucky with the weather. Then the influence of these factors is weak, and the problems increased – for example, in 2017 maharaji caused the fall of the prices of the products, – explained the General Director of the Institute for agricultural market studies (IKAR) Dmitry Rylko. – Real income slowly declined, domestic food demand has stagnated. The past year was successful for many cultures and regions of the Russian Federation, but not optimal in terms of profitability. The export of grain and oilseeds has declined. However, farmers were actively selling the stocks abroad in the first quarter of 2020. Since the end of March the situation has greatly changed coronavirus”.
the Pandemic had a negative impact on the business, 57 percent of surveyed farms. And only two percent said that the situation for them. Half of the respondents feared negative consequences for the industry. In international agricultural company “Syngenta” is linked largely with psychological background.
Representatives of large enterprises among the main reasons for pessimism called the dollar spring and a 20 percent increase in prices for supplies.
“Rose plant protection products, fertilizers and fuel. Although two years ago, too, the dollar was worth 68 rubles, and Agrochemistry was 40 percent cheaper. What has changed? The oil price fell – fuel up,” says the Deputy Director of the Stavropol agricultural holding “Krasnogvardeyskaya” Konstantin Excavation.
One hope for a successful export. “If the exchange rate reaches 70 to 72 rubles, the profit will be. “And yet all sad,” says Earthy. With the current currency value growers “gives way” and the revenues and profits, confirmed the CEO of the Kursk enterprise “Granros agro” Sergey Miruk. “If the dollar will be worth 68 rubles at the time of the harvest, he explained, then our revenues will be reduced even in rubles. Exports may fall: the South of the country do not want to work at that price”.
to Sell grain cheaply will have only small farms to repay loans, said Excavation.
And yet, according to the index, more than half of the growers (63 per cent) hoped SW��licit income, but insignificant. Increase can ensure high productivity and low production costs.
About 40 percent relies on the quality of goods and great prices. In “Sentence” relatively modest aspirations of the farmers explained that crop production intensification in many regions have reached the ceiling.
for Example, in the Voronezh region in 2019 set the historical record average yield. “I have to emphasize the sugar beet harvest – 6.8 million tons. But he did not bring manufacturers the desired impact due to the low cost of sugar. And they have reduced the acreage for this crop”, – said the head of the regional Department of agrarian policy Alexey Sapronov.
“Granros agro” corn yield average holding has reached 11 tons per hectare in test weight. “To grow at this level is much harder than, say, eight to ten tons. Leap can only give a differential application of seed and fertilizer,” admitted Sergey Miruk.
Increase productivity in 2020 at the time of the survey expect 68 percent of the survey participants (almost 10 percentage points more than in 2019). The key role here, in their opinion, play the plant protection products and quality seeds. Every second noted the contribution of management and precision agriculture technologies.
In early summer, there were serious concerns due to the weather.
“In the Stavropol territory, in Krasnodar territory and the Rostov region we will lose at least a third of the harvest, – said Konstantin Excavation. – Looks okay sunflower. And the rest… Winter wedge some died completely – terrible drought! Due to the dry autumn and winter off the rye fields. Barley suffered from frost – ear no, many fields are mowed for hay. Since February, the stock of productive moisture in the soil was 60 mm per hectare, fertilizer in the Eastern zone to conduct failed. In March-April again it’s dry… In the end, in the East all tudiscoveri. Corn stress: night, cold, day, 32-33 degrees. The situation is much worse than in 2019. Us additional revenue gives the seed and irrigation. But many people don’t know what to do.”
In the topsoil early in the year, too, were dry. Rescued the may showers. Voronezh winter crops are in good and satisfactory condition, spring gave normal shoots.
“And the wheat in Kursk region poorly developed, but three weeks of rain, the plants come to life. Hope for the harvest at the level of last year. Barley is good, soy is also shared observations Sergey Miruk. – From the night of cold weather has damaged the corn is behind in development for 2-2,5 weeks, in addition to the herbicide treatment was interrupted for 10 days due to rain. A third of the area can not be saved – the weeds have grown, but corn does not tolerate shading”.
the Structure of sown areas in the centre and South of the country changed. But this is not associated with coronariana, and General market conditions. Sugar beet last season, “summed up” not only of Voronezh, the area under it is reduced everywhere.
According to Dmitry Rylko, even in the fall it was clear that the South will increase the crops of wheat and barley as profitable and stable crops.
“In the Central zone held a record sowing of winter crops. And now took a huge wedge spring wheat. The picture is atypical: for 20 years, on the contrary, there was a shift to winter crops, – said Rylko. – Close to a record for sowing sunflower and corn”.
In the Voronezh region has extended the area under crops with export potential: soy, corn, spring barley.
In the Central Federal district production of corn for grain previously evolved at a faster pace: silos and drying capacity is not enough, cleaning was in December, and spring. Economy have less to do in this culture. Now objects for drying and storage have increased, so corn is easily winning position thanks to good profitability and new markets.
the situation is Similar – around soy. “One time in Central Russia was put on her records, and then came the disappointment. Regions import huge amounts of soybean meal against the background of overproduction of its own raw materials. The reason is simple: there is no processing. Now just build a few such plants,” – said the analyst.
Invested agribusiness and logistics. So, in Kursk the company started its export terminal to “interesting period to ship as many cars as necessary”, said Sergey Miruk. “The main thing, – he said, – we can’t be crippled by actions that inhibit the natural competition. Otherwise everyone will be trying to take out the grain in the dollar area, to create the peak load for capacity for transshipment. Lose and the margin, and the attractiveness of the business, and their reputation as suppliers.” Supported his colleague Konstantin Excavation, noting that the need for clear guidance on strategic grain reserves on the domestic market and freedom to sell the surplus.
“Yes, in 2020 the decision to restrict the export of grain to seven million tonnes (from 1 April to 30 June) had a reason, – says the General Director of IKAR. – Wheat raked to the grain, the flour millers in Siberia have questions, something to work on until the next harvest… But the system to declare the export quota for each second half – it means to slow down the investments, which the industry deserves.”
the Study “index of development of agricultural producers of Russia” annually conducts polls on behalf of an international agricultural company Syngenta, in partnership with the Institute for agricultural market studies (IKAR).
Among the respondents – representatives of agricultural holdings and farmers, the main exp��of CCO which gives crop. The circle of participants in the survey is quite stable, which allows you to compare indexes years.
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