Russia has managed to avoid the horrific levels of death from coronavirus, which was recorded in the infamous Italian town of Bergamo, however, recently published data lead to confusion: it’s not too early talking about the lifting of the measures? According to 23 may 2020, in Russia from the coronavirus died 139 people, 67 of them – in Moscow. This is more than in previous days, but experts explain the increased mortality does not refute the fact that Moscow really reaches a plateau. The explanation is simple: to correlate the number of deaths follows a number of cases is not on the same day, and 2-3 weeks ago – because in order for the disease to lead to death, it takes time.
At the meeting on the sanitary-epidemiological situation in the country, chaired by the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin, Deputy Prime Minister Tatiana Golikova said that the peak of deaths from coronavirus is yet to come – according to preliminary estimates, it will have at the end of may or the beginning of June.
“Our analysis, as well as smooth the offset curve of the epidemic in Russia right on the timing, suggests that a serious increase in the mortality rate will be recorded in may”, – said Golikova. She said that accurate data on the number and causes of deaths in the month of April will be received until may 29, but some conclusions can be made already today.
agreed With her and the mayor of the capital Sergey Sobyanin, who noted that the most difficult phase of the fight against coronavirus is yet to come – that, however, does not contradict his own words about what restrictions you can gradually, in small steps, but remove. The mayor gave a more detailed explanation:
“the Number of deaths from the coronavirus in may will be significantly higher than in April, as the beginning of may, the peak of the virus. It is obvious that the most difficult phase will occur in may”, – quotes the media the statement Sobyanin at a meeting with the President.
What does this mean? Three weeks is the interval which, according to the observations of doctors, is necessary for the disease. As the capital’s doctors today are fighting for every ill, this term is quite correct – use of modern medical technology helps to extend the life of the sick as possible, and in the vast majority of cases, not to save her.
– This development is easy to explain. At the beginning of may was the peak of morbidity, so it is natural that after a certain time can occur the peak of mortality. The average infection for 3 weeks, then it becomes clear: either man is on the mend, or had developed complications that lead to death. From this disease do not die instantly, it doesn’t happen mNNO. Therefore it is impossible to think of the “day to day”: if at the beginning of may increased the number of cases, then the same would grow the number of deaths, – has explained in conversation with the correspondent “MK” Vladimir closets, doctor of medical Sciences, Professor, Department of infectious diseases, faculty of preventive medicine medical University named after Sechenov. On the contrary: the more the number of cases of the disease, the more of them the risk of potential mortality in 2-3 weeks. In General, however, we see that today the proportion of mortality in the country – about 1 percent. This is a good indicator, it means that we worked well together – like in South Korea, which is considered the leader in the scenario of the struggle with the disease. In France or in Italy, the percentage is much higher.
Experts specify that the peak of mortality, which we will go in the next few days, does not invalidate the measures to combat the pandemic, which take capital and the Federal government. On the contrary – today the number of patients discharged on recovery began to exceed the number undergoing treatment: therefore, the fracture is evident. This means that approximately in the middle of June – three weeks after the beginning of a sustainable trend for a decrease in the number of cases! – we will see a decrease in the number of deaths. And it will speak for itself: Russia and Moscow, albeit slowly, but successfully coped with the pandemic, vecerkova the spring of 2020 the life of the entire planet.
Recall that there were previous suspicions that Russia and Moscow allegedly underestimate the number of deaths from coronavirus to achieve a more “smooth” statistics. On these allegations the Metropolitan doctors also answered simply and correctly: the fact that set as the cause of death “coronavirus infection” only if it was unambiguously confirmed by the CT scan, a special test data or post-mortem pathoanatomical investigation. If this is incorrect, according to pathologists, to consider the coronavirus cause the death of those who had serious chronic diseases – for example, a malignant tumor in the last stage, severe heart disease, heart attacks and strokes, cirrhosis of the liver, perforated ulcer, and the like. And, of course, impossible to say that a person “died from the coronavirus” (even if he was a carrier of the infection), if he died in an accident, or the death was violent.
– As can be considered a cause of death COVID-19, if a person had a heart attack or late-stage cancer, and it was not changes in the lungs? It is fundamentally wrong. Therefore, the statistics of Moscow in mortality from COVID-19 absolutely correct, – explained Oleg Zairatyants, the chief pathologist of the Department of health.
