the Further and sharp decline in the value of the Russian currency should not surprise anyone. Oil prices are the only thing that recently kept the “wooden” relatively stable, are on their last legs — the barrel of North sea Brent is trading just $20, and the price of American WTI and Russia’s Urals and hang out in the $10-15 per roll. Of the Central Bank in this situation continues to reduce the key rate — just as, in the opinion of the regulator and of the authorities, small and medium business of Russia will be available cheaper loans. However, the Russian currency is in danger of falling into a tailspin, the dollar is already in blijaishee time may exceed 90 rubles.
In the context of pandemic coronavirus main economic authorities in Russia continue to argue how much its spread will affect the financial sector of the country. According to the head of the Ministry of Finance Anton Siluanov, to cover the budget revenues falling due to coronavirus-related restrictions will have to spend considerably more than the previously announced 2 trillion rubles. A similar amount will go only to replace lost oil and gas revenues: the state will have to withdraw from the national welfare Fund (NWF). 1 trillion rubles of additional funds can be obtained through external borrowings.
the head of the chamber Alexei Kudrin says that the Federal budget deficit risks to reach 4 trillion rubles. Onibudo partially covered by the same Fund, but a significant proportion will have to bring in foreign markets. Lend such amount, foreign investors are not yet known — Federal loan bonds, in the active sale which hopes the state, while causing relatively weak interest from foreign Finance companies.
In this case, most will not carry to the Russian currency. The head of IAC “Alpari” Alexander Razuvaev confident that the economic situation returns to normal only after the lifting of the quarantine, and not only when conditions of self-isolation will stop in Russia, but also when such measures affect the entire global financial system as a whole. “Here much is unclear. There is a perception that the international tourism and therefore air transport between the different countries will be restored only in 2021. Deutsche Bank believes that the liquidity reserves of the national welfare Fund may be exhausted in a little over two years, if during that time the price of Russian Urals oil will not exceed $15 per barrel. Russia has international reserves of more than $550 billion At the same time, more than 20% are monetary gold, that is not the most liquid asset to sell which will also be problematic,” — said the expert.
the expert warns that in mind presbyt��and oil quotes of Brent could fall to $10 or even lower, and the cost of the Russian currency on the world market against this background, slide up to 85-90 rubles per dollar. State employees and civil servants, all will be fine, they will pay everything and crawl on time. Key issue — unemployment in the private sector. No sales no salary. In the best case, all will be restored in a year,” — says Razuvaev.
“Coronavirus — a nuclear bomb where we now sit. If it explodes, the world economy will experience a shock therapy, which is not faced since the “Spanish flu”, killed in 1918-1920 years, more than half a billion people. The rate of spending the national wealth Fund, the government, should assume that they will be spent in two years. However, the main problem lies elsewhere. Domestic producers, though, and learned how to produce a favorite to the population analogues of export products, but their quality is objectively inferior to foreign brands. Relatively speaking, we had great difficulty save the cost of the Russian currency in the area is 86 rubles, and Russian citizens in the coming years will need to feed on very questionable products. It will be not only the result of the current epidemic, and economic confrontation in which Russia has entered all the worlds a few years ago,” said analyst CC “Finam” Sergey Drozdov.
