the Central Bank allows the reduction of the key rate in the future by 100 basis points, said the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina. This means that at the next meeting of the Board of Directors, the rate may reach 4.5% instead of the current 5.5%. According to the head of the Central Bank, there is potential for this: “inflation is expected to have accelerated in recent years, but annual inflation is still significantly below 4 percent”. How justified is the policy of the regulator, as it will affect the interest on deposits and the exchange rate, “MK” learned from the experts.
“We will follow the dynamics of prices and aggregate demand, which weakened in the face of the restrictive measures was a significant disinflationary factor,” – said Nabiullina at the traditional Friday online briefing. Before taking the decision, the Central Bank will assess whether banks adapt “to big changes in the key rate, given that they have a large share of loans and deposits obtained at fixed rates”, she added.
According to the investment Manager the “OTKRITIE Broker” Timur Nigmatullina, the Central Bank will continue to reduce the rate proportional to the rate of decline in consumer demand. And this is conceptually correct, because will not have an inflationary impact and a positive impact on the ruble, he said. Non-residents will start buying bonds, including the BFL, which has already greatly increased in price. This process usually leads to the strengthening of the national currency.
on the one hand, the Central Bank acts logically, in full accordance with the external background, the world’s leading Central banks have already reduced interest rates to near-zero levels, says senior analyst of “Finam” Sergey Drozdov. But the problem, according to him, that in itself this policy, without reference to other measures, gives nothing to the Russian economy, which urgently needs a live, real money. And so it turns out “a single shot”: the rate decision is beneficial only to banks engaged mostly speculation with foreign currency and on the OFZ market. Banks consistently reduce interest rates on deposits (which is bad for the population) and at the same time offer people to take loans at 16-18% per annum – more than three times higher than the rate of the Central Bank. In such circumstances, could run the economy? As for the ruble, he does not suffer. In addition, the Ministry of Finance has announced that from 14 may increase the purchases of foreign currency on the open market by 2.5 times, which should significantly support the ruble.
