Alexander, classic economic theory suggests four factors of production: labor, land, capital and entrepreneurship. What will change in this set in the near future?
Alexander chulok: will Change the set of factors of production and their content. Traditional Quartet complement technology. This factor economists have begun to highlight in the 60-ies, and in 2018 Paul Romer received the Nobel prize for the incorporation of technological innovation in economic growth. We have already passed the periods of nano – and biotechnologies, when people were ready to invest money in any project, the title of which is these words. Then there was bitcoin, artificial intelligence. Now would probably be a slight lull in the current environment, investors become more rational and will spend three considered based on significant evidence base. And then shoot those technologies that will ensure the effective future of the entire economy. This is a very important point that cannot miss. Moreover, Russia has in this sense there is a huge competitive advantage over other countries.
What?
Alexander chulok: Savvy! The ability of our people to creative solutions, the ability to notice a possibility that no one will see. We always had a lot of “lefties”. They are now able to identify and implement the most needed and promising technologies. Such people have always been. They are nuggets, they are very small, they possess qualities that cannot be taught, only developed. And in this sense a very big challenge for the education system and for society and for the authorities is to identify such people, to appreciate them, to help, and then arrange the scale of their experience. To horseshoes clinked not a flea, and as much as need be.
Savvy and entrepreneurship are not one and the same?
Alexander chulok: Rather, it is one of its faces, which now will come to the fore. In General, all the traditional factors of production now will undergo a fundamental transformation. How precisely and accurately we recognize it, depend on many future successes and failures. Take the same capital. Now, apparently, it will be very difficult to obtain money under small percent. The value of this factor will increase significantly and should quickly master the methods of using short money to implement large projects. Or the factor “land”. Russia is rightly proud of its vast and rich natural resources. But their value in terms of competitiveness will only decline. Future robotized vertical farms, for which large areas are required. Modern urbanists are already laying such a Pro��of products in the plans of new cities. We conducted a study with many experts of agricultural and related industries. Revealed: already on the horizon 7-10 years traditional agriculture will make sense except in terms of attracting tourists. But for business need robots, digitalisation, the same artificial intelligence processing big data, coming from the earth, plants, animals. Agriculture may be one of the most technologically advanced industries. Remember how in the history books, when intensive agriculture replaced extensive? Now it’s time for a super-intensive agricultural industry.
But all this can happen only through human work?
Alexander chulok: will Now be at the same time develop two divergent trends. In the near future we will see a large demand for manual labor. According to the International labour organization, the world because of the pandemic, no work can be more than half a billion people. In fact, probably much less, but still appears loose hand, ready to work hard for little money. And at this moment actively introduce robotics, leaving hungry people without a job probably impractical at least from a social point of view. But later, in 2-3 years, when the acute phase will pass, all routine operations will trust the machines. Just because they are better able to cope, there is almost no a marriage work. Solve all high efficiency. Of course, the robot cannot work by itself. But the profile of employment change. Look, there are already successful practices for implementing telemedicine. Next to the patient, which treats the Professor, located somewhere in the clinic for hundreds of miles, should still be a medic, able to perform the necessary procedures. But it’s not a country doctor-universal time of Chekhov. His work is no less important, but the functionality is much more utilitarian. Yes, major surgery long are unlikely to be carry out remotely. But medicine is changing due to digitization. Drones flying over the pipelines and fields, conduct performance monitoring and security. Logistics – whether you are working in warehouses or shipping of goods between cities is also gradually moving to digital. Even in education, it turned out, with the help of online technology, you can introduce completely new forms and types of classes. Of course, artificial intelligence, takes on a significant part of the duties in the field of control and security. The nature of human work is changing. And labor may soon prove to be too much for the needs of the economy.
what would you do with extra people?
Alexander chulok: People are not redundant. Man, freed from routine work, may d��you so much. Russian classical literature is still the world’s trendmacro. But most poets and writers were freed from necessity of daily labour for food. It is important to make the inaction of the released labor resources was also fruitful.
And then can come to the rescue unconditional basic income. In Russia it can be implemented in the very near future. In the most affected by the pandemic industries employed many people and it is unlikely all of them will be able to find a new use for the foreseeable future. But here we must proceed very cautiously, to bring science to understand areas of expenditure. The world has tried to find a comfortable way for the application of unconditional basic income. Not yet. Now I have to implement it in stride. And we must do everything so that was an opportunity for each person to use their potential, without fear of starving in case of failure. Distribution of money – also because the Institute. But, on the other hand, people need food and clothes, bills and Bank cards for lunch will not be served and for them not wearing. You may want to consider some non-monetary form of a basic income.
a Very beautiful theory. But remember the refrain from the song Slepakova: “What if not?”
Alexander chulok: We’re talking about global trends. Their main feature is that they come regardless of will or desire of man. Just you have to be ready for them. Or they will taken by surprise. The world moved on to a different trajectory of development. We need to understand and do everything to us in this new environment was more comfortable. Will now be reformatted chain of added value. This is a very important point. It’s time to use that wit, which we talked about in the beginning to fit into these processes, to stake yourself in them a convenient and lucrative. Then we will have resources, opportunities for maneuver. But to realize all this, now is the time to do the most important thing: do not miss new opportunities, no matter how obvious and trivial they may be. Discover some of them can only be the same observant, intelligent and not recognize the patterns of man, as our national hero Ivan and Fedot the Archer. Re-read the tales and look for those who are looking for some special path in life. Now the future of these people.
