Berlin is uphill: No other Federal state has increased its gross domestic product in the last five years as the capital. On average, it rose by 3.5 per cent per year, as of now, an evaluation of the Landesbank Hessen-Thüringen (Helaba) is shown.
Thus, Berlin argued, the intra-German Ranking also in 2019 with a growth rate of 3.0 percent. This is particularly impressive because the overall German growth had already fallen significantly in the past year. Real boosted the German economy by only 0.6 percent.
Behind Berlin, Hamburg (2,2 percent) and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (1.5%) are the other places. East Germany (1.3 percent) from cuts in the cut is generally better than in the West (0.4 percent).
Saarland and Rhineland-Palatinate now with problems
Here are the only two provinces that recorded already in 2019, a recession, are also In the Saarland, the GDP declined by 0.6 per cent next door in Rhineland-Palatinate, even by 1.6 percent. Both are also in the Five-year Trend at the end. The Saarland is increased, therefore, only 0.3 percent per year on average, Rhineland-Palatinate shares the penultimate place with Thuringia, Bremen and Saxony-Anhalt. All of the come to Rates between 0.8 and 1.0 percent per year. Working group on national accounts of the Länder, Helaba Research
With this situation, all of the 16 Federal States, so this year in the large Corona-crisis. It is almost impossible that some will conclude this year with a positive GDP growth.
However, the experiences from the financial crisis in 2009 show that the range can go very far apart. At the time, about the economic performance of Berlin decreased by only 1.1 per cent, while it was in the Saar of 10.6 percent in the downhill. The national average was 5.7 percent.
What are the Federal States could suffer the most
The financial crisis, but it can be difficult to today’s Situation. At the time, had to be closed the entire public life. Nevertheless, it allows conclusions to be drawn. Working group on national accounts of the Länder, Helaba Research
Thus, Helaba expects that about Hesse is likely to be the crisis hit. This is partly due to the fact that the International airport of Frankfurt, and fairs in the city are more affected by the Corona-crisis than other sectors of the economy. Hesse belonged to on the basis of its Bank locations in 2009, with a minus 7.2 per cent to the weakest Laender. This year, Helaba of around 5 percent.
countries with a high export share, particularly
affected by the Corona-crisis also the international trade is paralysed, are Federal States with a high export share of their economy more strongly affected. According to data of the Statistical office of Baden-Württemberg, Bremen (62.5 percent), Saarland (43.8 percent) and Hamburg (43.6%) are the most dependent on exports. Above the national average in Baden-Württemberg (39.7 per cent) and Rhineland-Palatinate (40.2 percent) were in 2018, but.
conversely, it is Helaba’s assumption that the provinces will experience with a low export share of the economy shrank by around three percent this year. This would be in the frame, which is also to be expected for the whole of Germany. The lowest export rates had 2018 Berlin (10.0 percent), Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (16.1 percent) and Brandenburg (17.5 percent). Large Federal States with below-average export ratios are also NRW (27.8 percent) and lower Saxony (29 percent).
the number of unemployed will rise – but how far?
it is Unclear how the current crisis affects the labour market. In March 2020 employment prevailed in four of the länder full. This is defined as an unemployment rate of less than five percent. The leader of Bavaria, with 3.1 percent of Baden-Württemberg (3.4 percent), Germany (4.5 per cent) and Rhineland-Palatinate (4.6 percent) is here currently. Federal employment Agency, Helaba Research
But Already in 2019, Germany began a trend reversal. In North Rhine-Westphalia and Hesse, the ratios rose even again. This Trend could be set to 2020, regardless of Corona Fort. The extent to which the pandemic accelerated him, dare the Helaba but not predict. It is to be, for example, critical of the extent to which the short-time working fumes money the downturn.
Also, the Federal employment Agency to trust this week in its monthly report, not a forecast. “With the usual early indicators there is currently no view on the coming months given,” write the officials.
Marc shadow mountain, an Analyst of Deutsche Bank, recently predicted a rise in the unemployment rate of 0.5 percent for the year. In doing so, he assumes that the restrictions imposed by the pandemic, would be repealed not later than the middle of may. 0.5 percent would be the equivalent of 190.600 additional unemployment.
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