Seven months after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russia controls less land than in the first days of the war. Moscow’s military failures have increasingly stalled the Russian advance.
Seven months after the start of the Russian invasion, Russia controls about three thousand square kilometers less land than in the first five days of the war, according to CNN. Despite the Russian annexation of four Ukrainian regions announced on Friday, Russia is suffering more and more setbacks. According to a “CNN” analysis, the Ukrainian counter-offensive in the Kharkiv region in particular has meant that the Russian armed forces are currently controlling less Ukrainian territory than after the first invasion in February 2022.
A “CNN” analysis of data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reveals Moscow’s military failures that have stalled the Russian advance.
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In the first month of the invasion, Putin reached the peak of his success: After the first five days of the invasion, Russia and its allies controlled nearly 119,000 square kilometers of the total 603,500 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory, according to the analysis. These include annexed Crimea and parts of the Donbass held by self-declared pro-Russian republics.
According to the ISW, the Russian offensive took place across the north, south and east, with rapid territorial gains being achieved. The success of Russian forces stretched across much of the north, such as the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone. But also over large parts of the south, especially the agriculturally rich region of Cherson. In this way, Russia was able to almost quadruple the area it controlled.
Then, at the beginning of April, the turning point: the Russian armed forces failed to capture the capital, Kyiv. Finally, on April 8, Russian troops withdrew from the northern fronts, declaring they would refocus on gaining territory in the east.
The Russian units in the Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy regions also withdrew. According to CNN, within a few days Russia gave up about 40% of the gains it had made since the invasion began – a milestone for the Ukrainians.
According to CNN, the most important strategic setback on the Ukrainian side was the loss of control over the city of Mariupol in May. In late May, Russian forces also took control of the cities of Sieverodonetsk and Lysychansk in Luhansk.
Between May and August, however, Russia’s monthly territorial gains were very small: the Russian advance has increasingly faltered, as the ISW data show. Between the beginning of May and the end of August, the monthly net gains for the Russians were between 200 and 1400 square kilometers, and the trend was stagnating.
At the beginning of September, Ukraine then surprised with a counter-offensive: In the north-east, the Russian armed forces were pushed back by more than 50 kilometers on a broad front in the Kharkiv region.
According to the ISW, Ukrainian forces retook 4,000 square kilometers overnight on Sept. 11, making it their largest single-day advance to date. In just one week, Ukraine recaptured more territory than Russian forces had in the previous five months, CNN reports.
According to CNN, the Russian armed forces withdrew from an area of more than 9,000 square kilometers in the last week of September compared to the end of August. After all, the Russian military is now on the defensive for the first time: Putin’s goal of taking the entire Donetsk and Luhansk region seems a long way off after the Kharkiv withdrawal, according to CNN.
Despite Ukraine’s promising counteroffensive, Russia still controls around 116,000 square kilometers, including the annexed Crimea. The area controlled by Russia thus corresponds to the size of Bulgaria.
Moscow’s military failures may have contributed to this week’s decisions in the Kremlin, according to CNN. In order to secure the areas in Ukraine that are still partially controlled by Russia, President Vladimir Putin declared the occupied regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Cherson in Ukraine to be Russian territory on Friday. The annexations are not recognized internationally and are heavily criticized.
With Putin’s recent announcement, the Kremlin has set itself the goal of expanding this area, according to CNN. Parts of the four regions that Putin now considers annexed are to be incorporated into Russia. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy does not want to allow this: he announced on Friday that he would liberate the entire territory of Ukraine.
