The economic difficulties caused by the consequences of the spread of coronavirus that can lead to a reduction in Russia’s GDP in 2020 from 4-6% to 10-15%. The size of the drop will depend on the duration of restrictive measures and the situation on the hydrocarbon market.
Version of the economic reality in which Russia entered a “second 90”, unlikely. Such forecast contains in the research of analysts of the international consulting company Boston Consulting Group (BCG), reports RIA Novosti.
Depending on how it will develop in the country the situation with coronavirus, BCG identifies three main scenarios. The first decline in GDP will reach 4.6%, and the business will quickly recover and return to growth.
BCG analysts prefer the second scenario. Under him, the economy will lose 7-10%. Depending on the incidence of infection in Russia from time to time will be declared lockdown that will lead to a wave of bankruptcies of small and medium business.
Third, the hard scenario, GDP will decrease by 10-15%. The quarantine will be prolonged and will lead to the suspension of industrial production and construction, will begin large-scale liquidity crisis throughout the economy.
According to analysts BCG, “the second 90” in Russia will not come back because there are no preconditions of structural nature in the economy and the financial sector.
Earlier NEWS.ru reported that the Minister of economic development Maxim Reshetnikov said: the Russian economy was much stronger than it seemed in April. The country has shown great durability, but is still in the recovery period it will have "a long way up the hill. The Minister noted that currently about how will the recovery go great discussion.
