The forecasts of "devastating natural disasters" this summer in Russia should be treated with skepticism. So senior researcher of the Institute of water problems of RAS Nina Zaitseva in conversation NSN commented on the words of a senior researcher the main geophysical Observatory imeni A. I. Voyeykov Andrei Kiselev.
A climatologist suggested that the Russian regions can collapse tornadoes, hurricanes, heavy rains. It also does not exclude the risk of drought in some parts of the country.
"It’s half the grandmother said," — said Zaitsev.
The expert emphasizes that all long-term forecasts — estimated. They are based on the method of analogues — the archival records of previous seasons.
"Climate is an extremely complex system. She’s really swinging, the amplitude of weather changes increases. The more abnormal the season, the harder it is to find analogues and to say that certain" she admits.
Zaitsev concluded that in the case of a forecast climatologist talking about speculative statement.
Previously the scientific Director of hydrometeorological centre Roman Vilfand has predicted that the coming summer will be warm, but varied, with periods of warming and cooling.
