From a deeper failure of the economy will save that which is most severely suffering from combat coronavirus sector – small and medium business and services sector in Russia is historically weak. SMEs account for less than 20% of GDP, and it has always been considered the “Achilles heel” of the Russian economy. Services accounted for 28% of Russian consumption, whereas in Western countries, about 40-50%. Large industrial companies, on which the Russian economy is much more resistant to the ongoing crisis.
Vyzhutovich: Massive layoffs in all sectors of the Russian economy will not get any
a Decline in economic activity in April will undoubtedly lead to the closure of many small companies, but, according to economists at Alfa Bank, unemployment on the background outlined earlier, the labor shortage will not exceed 6% in summer and 5% by year-end.
a Decrease in nominal income as a result of quarantine, analysts expect only in April-June. At the end of the year the decline in real disposable incomes (incomes minus inflation and mandatory payments), apparently, will be in the range of 5%, but will be caused mostly by the reduction of salaries and social payments, and losses financial income and a reduction in entrepreneurial income.
IMF officially announced the global recession
Russian companies in the crisis historically prefer to carry the burden on their employees through a temporary reduction of salaries, or defer their indexing, and not through layoffs. Low unemployment (4.7% last year) may force business owners to share the load correction with your employees.
alpha Bank keeps inflation forecast at 4,-4,2% at the end of this year. If the scenario of moderate inflation pressure Karantins measures implemented, the Bank of Russia will probably follow the example of other Central banks and cut the benchmark interest rate (forecast at end of year – 5%). Because of this, as well as the surplus liquidity in the banking system (Bank accounts in the Central Bank in March the average was about 3 trillion rubles), the risk of increasing interest rates for the real sector remains very moderate.
Economists cite several arguments in favor of his optimistic forecast. One of them is that unlike previous crises, the closure of passenger international traffic will have a strong support of the Russian balance of payments and possibly the Russian economy.
Gurvich: the Decline of production in Russia due to the crisis will amount to 0.5-1% in 2020
first, reduced spending by Russian households on travel abroad: Russia was a net importer of services and can improve your balance, at least approximately $ 20 billion. Second, Russia used to attract foreign workers for construction projects in the coming months, most likely, replace them with Russian workers. Both of these factors should support growth of the Russian economy.
At the same time, the pandemic has a much more negative long-term consequences: it destroys hope for a way out of the trap of stagnation. Analysts believe that the previously planned to support investment growth, government expenditure will be the price that Russia will pay for the pandemic, conserved economy in their status quo. “Because of the risk of resumption of the epidemic, the government has to strictly monitor their spending, the issues of economic growth is likely to fade into the background in comparison with the task of ensuring long-term financial stability”, – stated in the review of alpha-Banka.
