the Russian economy faces a serious and possibly prolonged fall, as, indeed, the world — pandemic, the end which has not yet seen, will spare no one. For ordinary citizens, probably, not abstract percentages of GDP falling, and how it will affect their income. There is a direct relationship: the stagnation of the economy means a further process of impoverishment of the population: according to preliminary estimates, millions of people will lose their jobs, wages — in full or in part, other sources of income — at least from entrepreneurship, at least from stock. What are the future scale of the disaster, hope for those in difficult financial situation to citizens and how can we minimize losses, we are talking to Anton TABAHA, chief economist of rating Agency “Expert RA”, the Professor of Economics of Moscow state University. M. V. Lomonosov.
Most analysts believe that by the end of the year real incomes of Russians will fall by 5%. You call the same number. What caused such unanimity?
— Yes, the rating is 5% a year — is now mainstream. However, if you take the second quarter, according to our estimates, revenues for this period will fall by 15%. Of course, there is an element of guesses, but the drop is significant.
As falling incomes will be distributed according to population groups?
— do Not forget that we have the bulk of wages are concentrated in the budget or parapublic sector, where the situation is not significantly changed neither in good nor in a bad way. Retired this year will grow. Allowances are also due to the advanced indexing, and due to the expansion of social programs, which was announced in January. The maximum affected wages outside the public sector. A strong enough blow will receive income from entrepreneurial activities. Income from financial instruments will fall slightly: this is mainly interest on deposits, which are not yet falling, but by 2021 is likely there will be their turn. As for inflation, the surge will be, but small and low level in February. And about the second quarter, let me remind you that it have may holidays and the beginning of summer — so its share in the annual numbers is less than 25%. Seasonal failure of the macroeconomic production indicators occurs in these months regularly, and now the situation is aggravated by quarantine measures. On the other hand, after such failures usually followed by a rebound. How fast and how much “smeared” by labour, it is hard to say.
is it Possible to address the issue of falling revenues in the industrial and professional context? What segments of the population, what specialties and qualifications to the greatest extent, will lose in incomes, and who escape this fate?
— There is a whole sector of the economy, to��activities designed to workers is practically nothing to lose. Take the company’s infrastructure: the energy and public utilities all will be well. There might be some problems in the housing sector, but the government certainly support. One of the protected articles of the budget for the next few years will be health care, not least because of the effect of fear, awaiting for the inevitable epidemics. There will invest money, with this in mind it will build a hospital network.
In the short term will suffer all associated with tourism, with offline entertainment. There’s just a disaster! But food retail and agriculture will feel wonderful, unless you happen to crop failure. Relatively well the situation in the field of non-food retail: there is a large pent-up demand, and as soon as the pandemic is over, people will again begin to load up. For example, in many regions now opened shops related to gardening and repairs. In the end, the summer season begins, regardless of the isolation. Or take the Railways: the situation with the passenger traffic very sad, and with a cargo at least is a failure, but small. In General, to talk about who will survive and who is not, difficult. See who is now the most protected, and what industry was “the castle” for the period from six months to a year and a half.
pandemic clear. And as far as the situation with the income impact factor of the fall of the ruble against the dollar?
— Minimum. The exchange rate will affect the inflation, but we don’t know how much the ruble will fall by year-end. If we take the March of fluctuation, the ruble lost first 10% and then fell back from a peak. Moreover, a weak ruble will spur import substitution and could save some jobs.
If we talk about the incomes of people employed in the private sector, they depend on the state of the business. Therefore, the issue of business support from the state gained maximum sharpness. How do you assess the measures taken by the authorities?
— they can say: good but not enough. The state is expected not want to spend too much in an environment full of uncertainty. For example, it intends to provide subsidies and interest-free loans calculated on the basis of one minimum wage per employee while maintaining 90% occupied and only for companies in affected industries. But in this case, the employer almost easier to fire people: they, too, will receive the minimum salary in the form of unemployment benefits. If it was done in proportion to the average salary (as in most European countries), then that’s different. This practice can be justified in the case of labour intensive industries with low wages, but it is not necessary to have fallen under��ar companies in more intellectual spheres. By the way, in Moscow the program of business support in this plan is more common. Yes, the loans are not interest free, but it will be subsidized by existing loans, respectively, will decrease the debt burden.
And more. It is clear that the increase in unemployment — a good thing, but we have over the last decade, the system of employment services have atrophied. This is a big problem, because there is no mechanism that would allow to bring benefits to the people. It is unclear what to do the self-employed. So you have to actually rebuild the system of issuing unemployment benefits and promote employment. And again, the growth of official unemployed is partly caused by the deterioration of the situation on the labour market, and partly the fact that it made sense to register. Because the maximum benefit is not 4.5 thousand, instead of 8 over 12, and in Moscow and 19.5 thousand plus children’s allowances. This is meaningful money.
what about the idea of lump sum payments to the population, which became a reality in some countries of the West?
— I would not overestimate such a measure. In the United States and in some European countries it is only deployed. In Germany, the lump-sum payment get freelancers and mikrobasseyny, and others receive increased unemployment benefits through the employer, when employees pay from 60% to two thirds of salary regardless of working or not. Germany has a very developed system of such benefits. They have a machine that allows that thing is fast to implement, when, relatively speaking, Monday apply, and on Wednesday you come at the expense of money. In addition, Germany can afford to lend to citizens at zero percent as much as they should. As for America, there the conditions of the proposed distribution of each $1200 is a two-week minimum wage. About the same that to give us the taxpayers for 5 thousand rubles, a couple of weeks not to die of hunger.
we Have the distribution of money work poorly for two reasons. First, there is an appropriate mechanism of distribution, and secondly, the current crisis has not hit the poorest and not to employees of large companies and the middle class in the cities and resort areas. Him these “helicopter money” will not help, he needs support aimed at the recovery of demand and employment, jobs. For the poorest needs to be benefits is an effective measure of social support. But the demand for the products of the affected companies, it will not create, the money will go for food and clearing of loans, and the banks and the food industry at present and so all is well.
In Russia the focus should be on direct subsidized lending with subsequent cancellation within a reasonable limitlah. That is not one of the minimum wage and the average wage in the region, or even two. I repeat: it is necessary to help in the first place business, and only through him, indirectly to all the others.
As it is now, neither was all bad, but sooner or later will start economic recovery. How soon and at what rate the income of the population will recover?
— it Depends what point of reference to watch. If you take the level of the second quarter, then the third. Just because there is a natural rebound. The indicator 2019, incidentally, is not the highest, income is likely to be back by the beginning of 2022-th. Hardly the current decline will be offset in 2021-m, just purely statistically. If we are talking about wages, it is likely that the recovery will happen in 2021.
If you are not at the mercy of the state, what financial steps should be taken for people to survive? Try to save the last penny, to change rubles for foreign currency, immediately close the Bank deposits, do not be afraid to take out new loans?
— you Need to keep a cool head. To review financial priorities, to understand whether there is a risk of job loss and, if so, what you can claim. To compile an emergency budget, without homelessness, but given the changed circumstances. And before trying to earn, to check if there are gaping holes in your personal budget.
