experts in the field of demography predict in the foreseeable future significant change after 2050 the Earth’s population will probably shrink, which will lead to a shift in economic power.
To 2064 year on the planet will be about 9.7 billion people, but by 2100 this figure will be reduced to 8.8 billion, according to a publication of the medical journal The Lancet.
Demographic analysis suggests that the development of modern methods of contraception and increasing women’s education can be a catalyst for the decline in world fertility rates, says Sky News.
the Study also predicts a significant shift in the age distribution of the population around the world. This, according to the publication, means that the population will not be maintained at the current level without a more liberal immigration approach.
According to the study, the population in 23 countries, including Japan, Spain and Italy, will shrink by more than half, and in 34 countries, including China, the drop will be more than 25%.
But the countries of Africa South of the Sahara will counteract this trend, and their population will increase by more than three times compared to the present – thanks to the reduction of mortality in the region and increase the number of women who have reached childbearing age.
throughout the world by the year 2100 the number of people older than 80 years will be twice the number of children under the age of five and it will indicate the change in population of working age.
it is Expected that in such countries as China, Spain, great Britain and Germany, will be a sharp decrease in the size of the workforce, which will lead to slower economic growth. That, in turn, will pave the way for African and Arab countries to economic leadership.
the editor of the Lancet Dr. Richard Horton said that this important study has outlined a future that we need to plan: “It offers a vision of radical geopolitical shifts in power, challenges the myths about immigration, and stresses the importance of the protection and promotion of sexual and reproductive rights of women. Twenty-first century will witness a revolution in the history of our human civilization.”
“Africa and the Arab world will determine our future, while Europe and Asia will weaken their influence – predicts Dr. Horton. By the end of the century the world will become multipolar, and the dominant powers are India, Nigeria, China and the United States. It will truly be a new world to which we must prepare today”.
African economies to be the leaders, in terms of total population growth. By 2100 the population growth of Niger is projected to 765%, Chad at 710%, South Sudan 594% and Mali at 321%.
meanwhile, in Latvia, according to forecasts, there will be the big ��reducing the population – 78%, and in El Salvador is projected to reduce the population by 77%.
the Regions of South and Southeast Asia to yield its position as the world’s most populous Africa South of the Sahara, which, according to forecasts, will see an explosion of population growth in the middle of the century.
India, which currently ranks second in the world population, in 2100, will take first place, despite the reduction in population of about 300 million people. China is the first place in the standings down to third and its population will be reduced by more than a quarter.
Nigeria, which currently occupies the seventh place by population in the world, will rise to second place by the year 2100, and the place of Japan in the number of population will fall sharply from the 10th to the 38th.
Published in the Lancet the study also predicts a significant shift in the distribution of age across the world. By and large, age is currently structured as a pyramid in which more young people than elderly. However, the magazine predicts that by 2100 the population will become more middle-aged.
the study argues that immigration can be a way to compensate for the reduction in population.
Western countries, which will have a lower level of fertility by the year 2100, such as the US, Australia and Canada will probably be able to support the population of working age, softening his stance against immigration.
however the report warns that the reduction of the population should not jeopardize the global progress made in the area of women’s rights and reproductive health.
Professor Ibrahim Abubakar, from the University College London says that if the forecasts published in the Lancet, “at least half accurate”, that “migration will be for all countries is not a choice but a necessity.”
