Especially for “the Russian newspaper” Sergey Drozdov, an analyst CC “FINAM”, described as a recovering oil market. And gave several scenarios of movement of the ruble.
– support the commodity currencies have rising energy prices, – the expert reminds. – And the rapid increase in oil prices encourages the information that the demand for oil in China is slowly returning to levels that were before the coronavirus. Instead of headlines in the business media, “too much Oil” came the headers of “Possible shortage”.
According to the statement of OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo, world oil production decline at a rapid pace, as eloquently data
from the oil and gas service company Baker Hughes. That the number of active oil rigs in the United States is declining for nine consecutive weeks, reaching lows of July 2009.
According to the forecast of U.S. Department of energy, the production of shale oil in the largest regions of the country in June, steady with may at 197 thousand barrels per day – up to 7,822 million barrels per day. The largest decline is expected in the field Permian – 87 thousand, to 4.29 million barrels per day.
and, of course, contributed to the rise in oil prices contributing Riyadh. Last Saturday, Saudi Arabia together with Kuwait have agreed to reduce production at the largest field “al Khafji”, and in June the Saudis voluntarily over and above the quota under the agreement OPEC+ will cut production by another million barrels a day.
At this stage by passing a recovery in energy prices the Russian currency supported by the Bank of Russia, which on behalf of the Ministry of Finance from 13 may daily sells currency on the open market with a volume of 11.3 billion. The Bank of Russia with the deterioration of the external and internal environment do not allow the ruble to strengthen to below $ 75. And for sure the consolidation under the level 72, the dollar needs higher oil prices.
Thus, in the medium term, conservative scenario assumes the preservation of the range of 72-75 and optimistic – the breakdown of the mark 72. And further gradual strengthening of the ruble to the level of 70 against the U.S. dollar.
