we All have become accustomed to the fact that in the unfolding of the virus and postirochnoy age (if postirochnaja era will come) things will be different. So much that they dismiss such assertions as an annoying fly: know heard.
But what we’ve heard specifically? At the hearing, in General, rather superficial “discovery”. Well, Yes, everything will go online, especially education. This, of course, a qualitative shift, but it has already been written, rewritten. And the fact that our health care moved through the commercials online half TV, we live with deviruchi times. It’s time to make the next step.
of Course, struck the planet virus life-changing. But it is necessary to put the question another way: is there something that the virus itself is not caused, but the development of which was strongly pushed?
In the end, the plague wiped out half of Europe, we must not only masks, but also the fact that she became a catalyst for the development of processes that without it ripened in society. First, the “black death” contributed to the liberation of the peasants in Europe from analogue to Russian serfdom. Secondly, the plague has driven the development of crafts. Thirdly, much higher — in a very real, monetary terms — was valued labor. Significantly faster began to grow and strengthen the third estate. Fourth, the positive changes occurred in the status of women in society — for example, significant progress has been women’s handicraft workshop.
“Plague” the cause of all this is one: people have become much smaller. They had to pay dearly for failing to understand the value of human life. Paradoxically, the main lesson of the plague — the awareness of humanity. Namely, it is the basis for a future Renaissance that has made the common man and not only biblical scenes, saints, or kings, an object of intense interest of art.
the same Foundation — and of the reformation. Her humanistic message that man needs no intermediaries in his address to the God who speaks to him from the pages of the sacred books. That is why the most important act of the reformation — the translation of Martin Luther’s Bible in German, understood his countrymen language.
Coronavirus to the plague, luckily, far away. Yes and look into the future to see what it is, what it is possible today to distinguish coronavirus trail, is not easy. But still something is already guessed.
Turning, for example, to the economic sphere, it is possible to distinguish the connection of the last world devirusare crisis of 2008 with a viral economy. More precisely, the relationship between the main anti-crisis measures and today’s realities. The effect of coronavirus — that he took these measures, initially temporary, designed to mitigate the consequences of the crisis are the new normality. Its main distinguishing feature — a seemingly more yesterday completely abnormal rates of Central banks. Meanwhile, negative interest rates of Central banks of Japan, Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden, and the zero rate of the ECB, is already a reality, with a specific history.
What’s next? There are those who do not rule out that the negative rates approaching and the fed. So, in may 2020, not some irresponsible Professor seeking fame, and co-chair of the Department of Goldman Sachs on global exchange rates, interest rates and strategy in emerging markets Zach Pandl did not rule out that the second wave of the coronavirus will provide opportunities for discussion of the introduction of negative rates by the fed.
Here is the link with the virus is the one that can accelerate and consolidate the process that unfolded before the coronavirus. The second wave — has the actual reality: who regularly commits right now the maximum number of cases in the world. If the fed rate down to zero, or even more would be even lower (and in addition, really effective measures to support the economy, as shown by the crisis of 2008, in the Arsenal of the world’s regulators are not, and for 12 years nothing fundamentally new has emerged), the world economy will qualitatively change.
First of all, such a move would be difficult reversible. Have experience proving that when regulators abruptly pulling up a stake, struggling with the crisis, the depreciation of its currency or a wave of inflation, this step is in fact temporary: it carries out its mission, and the rate is lowered. So we had, when the Bank of Russia in 2014 raised the rate to 17%; it was even tougher in Sweden, when in 1992, the Central Bank raised the rate by 900%, but only for a few days. These measures were temporary and to be generally justified. But the experience of the movement of rates no.
Very characteristic events in Japan. This is the first country where for a long time there were negative rates. Of course, they were introduced as a temporary measure, but as soon as the Bank of Japan attempted to raise the rate, then the economy faces a crisis. The fed, in turn, tried to return to the rate increase, but almost immediately retreated. Hence, the possible first, the negative interest rates helped to push the global crisis of 2008, but since then, they — in conjunction with the crisis: monetary policy returns it.
the Most important question: what is the new quality of the economy, if near-zero rates of the regulators will become the new normal? First of all, it is a challenge for banks whose traditional business (to buy money cheap and sell expensive) is undermined. This challenge is abruptly replace traditional banking offices online banking. But the challenges for banks — even flowers.
a Zero or negative rate means that changing the role of money. Today they — a measure of economic efficiencyactivity. The project pays for itself, makes a profit — so it is effective. But at zero and negative rates, the picture changes. Debt is not scary, just easy to find almost gratuitous refinancing debt, and this means that financial support will be to those projects that with hindsight obviously ineffective.
Someone may say: finally! There are still those who call themselves economists and actively advocates that efficiency should be measured not by money, not a payback, but something more sublime — “development interests”, for example. A great attitude — until then, until you start to delve into who and how will define those “interests of development”. Socialism, at least in the Soviet version, came down from the stage of history precisely because “development” was defined “party line”, which was far from being able to waste your time on some actual measurements of economic efficiency.
the Problem, however, is much more acute showdown with the past. Undermined the Foundation of modern Economics — market efficiency. What will replace it?
it is Clear that the state will seek to use this historic opportunity. But these attempts are doomed to failure. What is the role of the state will increase, but the role of regulator of economic efficiency it does not pass historical memory is unlikely.
one thing Remains — the same new technologies. Looking for a specific response superimposed to the emergence and development contrary to any administrative obstacles to electronic money. But they don’t make it easy to search, and show how it is complex, because in addition to the technology side of the main crypto — undermining the monopoly of Central banks on the currency issue that complicates the search for economic efficiency, and economic processes as a whole. Issues, including the “sysadmin” of technological processes determining the efficiency, is more than answers.
But one conclusion can already be drawn: we are on the threshold of the postmodern economy, the economy of the era of the erosion of the foundations of the “industrial society”, a few centuries ago which replaced feudalism. Is society evolving, leads to a crisis of the system, which we once called capitalism. And the coronavirus, which significantly accelerates this process.
