It is dark the pictures are, the SVP Federal councillor Guy Parmelin (60) and the state Secretariat for economic Affairs (Seco). Although the authorities seem to be the Corona to get epidemic slowly into the handle. The impact is likely to be felt for the Swiss economy, but for a long time. “An unemployment rate of up to 7 percent could be a reality,” warned Parmelin on Wednesday.
even now, the unemployment numbers are rising rapidly. In March alone, the rate jumped from 2.5 to 2.9 percent. And Almost one in three workers, or a total of 1.5 million people are already on short-time working.
Switzerland is on the brink of a recession
estimates were already of a loss in production of 25 percent. “We have to adapt to a deep crisis, which takes a long time,” said Parmelin more. The economy must be supported, but at the same time, resources must be conserved so that future generations to the debt remained sitting.
The Seco has added to its previous economic forecast now with two new scenarios – both negative.
In scenario 1, the “V-recession”, would have repealed the Shutdown around the end of may, fully, abroad, at best, take longer. Under these assumptions, a decline in GDP of 7 percent, resulting for the year 2020. Unemployment would rise to around 4, there were bankruptcies.
In the second, however, would use a rapid economic recovery, which promises to be at least in the medium term, a recovery. For 2021, this would result in a growth of 8 percent.In scenario 2, the “L recession”, of the Shutdown in the domestic and in the major trade would take partners longer. In Germany he would be relaxed until June, gradually. Thus, industries would be expected for various services only to a limited extent with a recovery. It would Severance and bankruptcy waves. The GDP was about 10 percent, unemployment would rise to 7 percent. The people again as soon as possible
can work, However, the Numbers are still very uncertain, as the Seco grants. Clear, however, is that The Swiss economy will still suffer long under the Corona of a crisis. “We must now do all it can to ensure that the people can be back at work soon,” said Parmelin. Thus, the economic value added should be maintained at a level as high as possible.
at the same time, it is important that there is no second infection rolls a wave over the Switzerland. “It must follow, therefore, all remain in the distance and hygiene rules,” said Parmelin. This is especially true for those industries that shall be opened at the end of April step-by-step again. “We can’t afford any new foci of infection,” said Parmelin. Any extension of the restrictions would be in Switzerland to be expensive.
