a month Ago, has reached the Coronavirus Latin America as one of the last regions in the world – and is already making its mark in the political systems left. Surprisingly quickly, the President can increase their popularity, if you approach with clear strategies to prevent the spread of the disease. The shows in Peru, Chile and Argentina.
doers are winners
In Peru, for example, has closed President Martín Vizcarra immediately after the first infections in mid-March, the country and a radical Lockdown imposed. Vizcarras popularity has since increased from 52 to 87 percent.
In Chile, has introduced the unpopular conservative President, Sebastián Piñera, the gradual social Isolation, which restricts the meantime, the public life. At the same time, he has prescribed for early relief measures in the state. Meanwhile, Piñera, who was weakened by demonstrations against his government and a new Constitution, massively doubled, its popularity rate of almost 21 percent.
in Argentina, Alberto Fernández is sharpening its profile as a social go-getter with a clear quarantine policy. About 80 percent of the population behind him. His choice, he won five months ago with around 50 percent of the vote.
Corona-deniers are losers
Vice-versa: If the President deny the crisis, nice to talk to, or hesitant to react, then you lose rapidly in the population. This is true regardless of the political orientation for the populist Jair Bolsonaro most in Brazil, and Andrés Manuel López Obrador in Mexico.
to go to The right-wing populist Bolsonaro, the Brazilians against the advice of his Ministers, and experts continue to work. The Virus is not much worse than a flu, he claims, and shows himself unprotected among his Fans. Meanwhile, almost all of the Brazilian governors to restrict public life. Every night it comes to loud protests- “hit the pot” against the President – even in residential areas, where the majority of the former military voted. The popularity Bolsonaros fell from 30 per cent to the lowest level since he took office at the beginning of 2019.
The left-wing populist López Obrador has called up a few days ago, the Mexicans, to go into Restaurants, and to embrace as much as possible. But in the meantime, he seems to have the gravity of the situation detected. On the last day of March, he has to call an abrupt end to the national state of emergency. His popularity has fallen sharply since the beginning of last year, from 78 to now 59 percent.
The crash below the poverty line
The biggest challenge to the governments. Because Corona encounters a economically weakened continent. The Per capita income in the Region has been decreasing since 2014. Unlike during the global financial crisis of 2009, countries have accumulated high debt, their currencies have weakened, and the exports are stagnant world economy, declining.
The economic crisis will be aggravated by the consequences of the Corona-pandemic world significantly: The UN economic Commission reckons that around a third of the 650 million Latin Americans will fall below the poverty line. The number of extremely poor will rise according to UN calculations from 68 to 90 million. Because around 40 percent of Latin Americans work in the informal sector, it is the governments hard to reach them with aid programs. Most of the governments is unlikely to remain a other way to print it as a money to Finance distribution programs.
With your courageous quarantine actions can prevent the governments in Latin America a spread of the Virus, and so many Dead. The Imperial College in London estimates that Latin America could be avoided with consequent social Isolation 2.5 million deaths. The Problem is the magazine The Economist commented: The governments must find a way to keep their newfound popularity, even if the economic and social difficulties are on the increase.
author: Alexander Busch (Salvador, Brazil)
*The post “Corona in Latin America: winners and losers” published by Deutsche Welle. Contact with the executives here.
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