Analysts at Nielsen have given a forecast of how can recover the markets for consumer goods, retail and catering after the epidemic. With a favorable scenario, these segments can return to normal life in the third quarter of this year, in the worst — until the first half of 2021. Nielsen warns that consumer behaviour in any case will change.”Many compare the current situation with the global financial crisis of 2008— said the head of Nielsen for the analysis of global markets Scott Mackenzie.— But these comparisons are not quite correct, because the crisis was very different from the present. Then every day die thousands of people (from one infection.— “B”), millions of people were locked in the houses for an indefinite period, the business did not order anyone to close their doors, the children went to school.”Analysts have identified three possible scenarios. They take into account such variables as unemployment rates, the volume of business allocated to the state aid, interest rates, government measures to support the population and the health system. Also considered traditions, trends and recent changes in consumer behaviour in different parts of the world.Three possible scenarios for the recovery of the markets received the provisional name “bounce”, “restart” and “rebirth”. The most rapid recovery is expected in a scenario of “rebound” — in this case, the normalization of the retail market and catering is possible in the third quarter of this year.The condition for such a scenario is a particular set of consumption patterns, recorded before and during the course of the epidemic. Where business gives to consumers, it will allow the market to fairly quickly recover.The script “reset” means the restoration of industry in the fourth quarter of this year or by the end of it. For such a scenario to the already mentioned earlier in the “rebound” of consumer preferences (noncontact, distancing, etc.) can be added to more complex tasks.First, many consumers fear during the epidemic to visit the large stores used to walk in the small points in the neighborhood, can save a habit. This will complicate the return of the total market retail sales to normal operation. Another factor may be the financial problems of consumers due to a job loss or reduction of earnings. The third negative aspect can be encountered in the course of the epidemic the habit of buying only the necessary, basic goods. Analysts believe that the “reset” these additional factors will have some, but not crippling.If the negative factors become dominant, the situation will go in the most adverse of SCE��Aria “rebirth.” It implies the recovery of the consumer market until the first half of 2021.Nielsen emphasizes that in any of the scenarios, the behavior of consumers one way or another will change. “The range, the volume of packaging, choice of brands, products — all this will change as buyers will adapt to the changing economic environment and to pay more attention to their health and safety,” experts say.”Retailers and brands need to pay attention to such polarization, to be able to respond quickly to the changing situation by using pricing policies or different products,” suggest analysts.Eugene Tail
