The conflict researcher Andreas Heinemann-Grüder urgently warns the West against giving in to Putin out of war weariness. Abandoning Ukraine and a Russian victory would mean the end of Europe, permanent division and openness to blackmail.
The political scientist Andreas Heinemann-Grüder from the International Center for Conflict Studies in Bonn has urgently warned the West against giving in to Putin out of war-weariness and trying to achieve peace by taking a “cosy course”. “War is constant tension, even when the danger, horror, and violence become commonplace. The intolerability of watching feeds the longing for peace,” said the conflict researcher to FOCUS online.
However, trying to stop warlord Putin according to the principle of “making peace without weapons” is futile. “The cheap talk of the ‘logic of peace’ cannot show with a single argument how the war should be ended. Candles can be a sign of mourning or hope, but wax is not an argument,” says Heinemann-Grüder.
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With his initiative, the professor is reacting to the ongoing criticism in Germany of the ongoing military support for Ukraine. The political scientist Wolfgang Merkel recently spoke out in favor of negotiations between the USA and Russia, which should deal with the neutrality of Ukraine or the gradual lifting of sanctions against Russia. With a similar goal (“Armistice now!”), celebrities, journalists and scientists appealed to Western governments to do everything in their power to ensure that the warring parties “come to a negotiated solution as soon as possible”. A “major diplomatic offensive” is needed.
Andreas Heinemann-Grüder does not give such claims any chance of success. In his opinion, other factors determine the outcome of the war: Ukraine’s staying power, the West’s resilience, the radicalization of Russian warfare and China’s role.
“It is possible for the Russian war machine to be stopped and for essential parts of the occupied areas to be recaptured,” said the expert. Great powers have often been defeated despite material superiority: Great Britain by the US colonies, France in Algeria, the USA in Vietnam, the Soviet Union in Afghanistan, the USA in Syria and Afghanistan.
In an interview with FOCUS online, Heinemann-Grüder was convinced: “The strategic use of resources, high-precision long-range weapons, the prevention of supplies from Russia, the partisan war, Ukrainian cyber attacks and the sanctions can also turn the tide in favor of Ukraine.”
Regarding the current state of Russia as a military and economic power, the professor said: “The piston eater is in Russia’s war machine. Russia lost the blitzkrieg and the battle for heads and hearts. Russia is isolated internationally, its ‘soft power’ is crumbling. The business model of the corrupt and mafia-like petro-state is coming to an end.” To justify this, he explained that Russia’s gross national product ranks 14th in a global comparison, its gross domestic product per capita is around 10,500 euros per year, and the EU average is 28,000 euros. “The ego of the Russian elite cannot triumph over facts.”
The political scientist is convinced that Putin will not give in as long as he sees himself as a victor militarily. “Anyone who wants to conclude a new pact with Putin will only get more war,” said Heinemann-Grüder. “At stake are inner peace and world peace. War changes the system in which we will live. The abandonment of Ukraine and a victory for Putin would mean the end of Europe, permanent division and the possibility of blackmail. However, if Ukraine and the West hold out until the summer of 2023, the effort will have been worth it.”
Russia and Europe’s only chance is in Putin’s defeat, the expert said. Only as a result of a defeat will the regime change, open up and face up to its imperialism, militarism and culture of violence. “Only then will Russia be reintegrated into the European family of nations. Security in Europe is not possible with Putin, only against Putin.”
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The past has painfully shown that Germany in particular was on the wrong track with its Russia policy, the conflict researcher told FOCUS online. “Negotiations have been going on with Russia since 2014, the annexation of Crimea was de facto accepted and the Baltic Sea pipeline was built. Result: blackmailing instead of interdependence (mutual dependency, the editors).”
Consequences must be drawn from this, demands Andreas Heinemann-Grüder. “In the future, Germany can no longer rely on impartiality in the conflict, on the convergence of expectations, on change through trade or on others supplying the weapons that are decisive for the war. Rather, Germany must take the lead.”
This applies, for example, to the establishment of protection zones and protected corridors, the prosecution of war crimes and the diplomatic reunification of southern states. “In the future, ceasefire violations must be severely punished and observer missions must be robustly enforced. Diplomacy must not be limited to good offices,” said the expert.
As for the possible scenarios after the end of the fighting, the professor said. “The post-war order will only be based on the equality of nations, not on Russia’s spheres of influence.” The international community would have to guarantee peace – which it has so far absolutely not wanted. “Peace towards Russia can only be enforced if Putin respects the guarantors of peace.”
Elements of pacification of the future “line of contact” could consist of buffer zones, no-fly zones and international inspections, as well as demilitarization of Russian-controlled areas of Ukraine, international control of the border with Russia, and international control of Russian shipping in Ukrainian and international ones waters of the Black Sea. “The guarantor powers, equipped with a mandate from the UN General Assembly, could include former or current non-aligned representatives, such as Azerbaijan, China, India, Nigeria, South Africa,” explains the political scientist.
