a Kiev has suddenly intervened in the conflict in the South Caucasus by demanding from Armenians to respect the “territorial integrity” of Azerbaijan. Moscow preferred the role of facilitator, urging both sides to cease fire. The piquancy of the situation is that now the relations of Moscow just better with Baku than with Yerevan. But Yerevan is an ally in the CSTO. Should Russia send its troops to the rescue of the Pro-Western Pashinyan?
On Tuesday, the Armenian foreign Ministry was called on the carpet by the Ukrainian Ambassador Ivan Kuleba. The occasion was made before the statement of the foreign Ministry of Ukraine, clearly to support Baku in its conflict with Yerevan. The Armenian foreign Ministry, the Ukrainian diplomat presented the facts about the violation of the ceasefire by the Azerbaijani side and the deliberate shelling of civilian infrastructure and the civilian population in border villages.
The head of the Ukrainian Institute of policy analysis and management Ruslan Bortnik not surprised that Kiev clearly took the side of Azerbaijan.
“Kiev has in mind the Crimea and the Donbass, so he stands on the side of those of the former Soviet republics to protect their borders as of 1991. Only their Ukraine considers legal,” he told the newspaper VIEW.
Thus, according to him, more or less democratic or “Pro-Western” regime in this or that country does not play for Kiev no role. Based on this, in Ukraine and demanded that Armenia should not restore the “territorial integrity” of Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan destroyed a military facility Armenia
However, an important role was played by Mercantile considerations.
“Azerbaijan has much to offer Ukraine in the first place the oil, which Kiev hopes. In addition, Azerbaijan business, unlike the Armenian, are very serious in our country,” – said Bortnik.
In Ukraine, in the conflict continue to get involved and other neighboring countries. On Tuesday, on this occasion for the first time by the President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the instigator of the escalation he announced in Yerevan.
“We strongly condemn the attack of Armenia on the fraternal Azerbaijan. Because of the systematic attacks of Armenia we are very concerned about. It is a conscious attack,” Erdogan said, promising Baku support “against any attacks.”
The source of the newspaper OPINION in the Armenian diplomatic circles believes that military provocation of Baku inspired just Erdogan himself – and not incidentally coincided with the transformation of Hagia Sophia into a mosque. He also noted that Azerbaijan ignored the appeal of the United Nations to observe a truce during a pandemic. The diplomat assumes that thus, the Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev decided to “redirect to the Armenians the anger of his people, embracing a��asego during quarantine and tired of the struggle of clans”.
The diplomat urged countries of the organization of collective security Treaty (CSTO) to condemn “aggression of Azerbaijan implemented with the support of Turkey.”
CSTO Tuesday has finally determined its position, urging both parties to an immediate ceasefire. The Kremlin, for its part, expressed concern about the situation, and the Minister of foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov earlier called colleagues in both the Republic and also urged them to cease fire immediately.
However, no signs of a lull in the combat zone on Tuesday was not observed. On the opposite, increased losses – and at the level of the officer corps. In a shootout killed a major General of the Azerbaijani army Polad Gashimov and Colonel Ilgar Mirzayev, and in the armed forces of Armenia killed major Garush Hambardzumyan and captain of the SOS Elbakyan, reports TASS.
The defense Ministry of Azerbaijan said about the destruction of Armenian DotA in Tovuz direction of the border. According to him, the Armenian armed forces shelled three border villages of Tovuz district, no casualties were reported. In turn, the Yerevan announced that the artillery of Azerbaijan fired on the neighborhood of the village of Berd. Also in the border area of Armenia was hit by ground pipeline. As reported, JSC “Gazprom Armenia” (“a daughter” Gazprom), as a result the gas supply was stopped in several villages of Tavush region.
Many experts say that a new military crisis in the Caucasus will inevitably involve not only Turkey but also the neighboring republics, including Russia. The paradox, however, is that at the moment political relationship between Moscow and Yerevan is pretty cool.
As you know, after the “velvet revolution” in 2018 the country’s new leader Nikol Pashinyan announced a policy of rapprochement with the West, pointedly sending under arrest and of the CSTO Secretary General, General Yuri Khachaturov, and ex-President Robert Kocharyan, with whom for a long time and close friend of President Putin. Kocharian was in prison for a year and a half and only recently was released to await trial under house arrest. The President of Russia demonstratively handed to the prisoner Kocharian wish “fortitude” and even met with the wife of the arrested, to Express my support for her. Meanwhile, Pashinyan during the year, blocked the work of the staff of the CSTO, not allowing his allies to appoint a new Secretary General in place Khachaturov.
The relations between Putin and Aliyev, on the contrary, are considered quite warm. For example, last fall, they performed together at the meeting of the political club “Valdai” in Sochi. In this regard, many analysts wonder whether Russia to intercede for Yerevan.
First Vice-President of Academy of geopolitical problems, doctor of military Sciences Konstantin si��Cove recalls that Yerevan is our military ally, on the territory of Armenia in Gyumri is our military base.
“If there is a situation close to the rout of Armenia, the Russian military still perform at her side. If you say that Pashinyan – the Pro-Western leader, Ilham Aliyev, then it is even more Pro-Western and even Pro-Turkish,” – said Sivkov.
Azerbaijani Ambassador in Moscow Polad Bulbul-oglu before openly warned: since Baku will seek the return of Nagorno-Karabakh skirmish in the district of Tovuz could escalate into full-scale war between the two countries. On Tuesday, the Ambassador also called the collision provocation of Armenia, the aim of which is to involve in the conflict Russia and the CSTO and create a new hotbed of tension, disturbing all the same Russia.
But if Moscow’s appeals for a ceasefire is not effective and full-scale war still breaks out, whose army will be objectively stronger?
Sivkov believes that the Azerbaijani army is superior to his opponent and aviation, and armored forces. “To this we must add the superior economic potential of Azerbaijan at the expense of rich oil reserves”, – he said the newspaper VIEW, and then specifies: “a few “but”: according to the experience of previous wars, tactical and operational-strategic training of commanders of the Azerbaijani army are much lower than in Armenian.” He also mentions high moral and psychological potential of the army of Nagorno-Karabakh, which de facto is part of the Armenian armed forces.
Sivkov concludes that in the short war, the Armenians, despite the technical and quantitative gap, it can resist and even defeat the enemy in separate directions. But if the war drags on and will lead to significant losses, that Yerevan will not be easy.
In turn, military expert Pavel Felgenhauer in comments to the newspaper OPINION said that Baku’s more modern foreign weapons, including the impact of Israeli drones. Yerevan can only rely on Russian and Soviet weapons. However, Yerevan has advanced Russian missiles “Iskander” and the old single-stage liquid Soviet ballistic missile R-17, which in the West as Scud B. It is a weapon whose warhead weighs a ton, went to Armenia inherited from the Soviet army.
“Iskander” have a much smaller warhead and can cause a precision strike, but it is unlikely they will cause serious damage to the oil infrastructure in Azerbaijan. But this rocket Armenians can get on the presidential Palace in Baku,” said Felgenhauer.
“Can the air force Armenia to bomb Azerbaijan’s oil rigs?” – asks Sivkov. It would�� simple, if they were not properly covered by air defenses remaining from the Soviet era and are complemented by appliances purchased in Russia. With the same success we can say that Azerbaijan’s air force bombed all strategic enterprises of Armenia that will be even faster.”
According to experts, although skirmishes in Tovuz was delayed, the scenario of a major war is unlikely. “In the long war are not interested neither Russia nor Turkey. So it won’t be. All limited to local skirmishes,” sums up Sivkov.
