There are sentences that the Chancellor repeats over and over again: In the Ukraine, Germany’s freedom is also being defended, says one. Recently, however, he has also said another sentence. And that also explains why the Scholz government is now refusing to deliver Fuchs tanks to the war zone.
We, including the media, cling too tightly to this one sentence that Olaf Scholz once said: Whoever orders leadership from me will also receive leadership. That sounds resolute and courageous and confident. And it also sounds a little like Gerhard Schröder’s Basta.
But one has to say: now, in the Ukraine war, there is not much left of the leadership mantra of the SPD Chancellor. And that’s why this one new sentence that Olaf Scholz said now, with Maybritt Illner, is so important. It reads: “I believe that you can only act with the support of the citizens.”
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This sentence means: Scholz does not want to lead himself, but – he lets himself be led. He does not make his decisions dependent on needs, interests and calculations, but on moods. That’s what Scholz’ predecessor did, and one can say that Scholz has a lot more in common with Angela Merkel than one might think.
Anyone who wants to understand why Scholz does not want to deliver Fuchs, Marder or Leopard tanks to Ukraine should remember two statements: Right at the beginning, immediately after the start of the Ukraine war on February 24, he warned Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht (SPD) in the German Bundestag, Berlin could also become a military target for Vladimir Putin. And shortly thereafter, Scholz warned of the “escalation” of the two-state war into a global armed conflict, into a Third World War, which might even be fought with nuclear weapons.
These are Scholz’ parameters on which all his Ukraine decisions are based: NATO must not become a party to the war and Russia must not be “provoked” in such a way that the two-state war becomes a global war. In this way, Scholz makes himself vulnerable – within the Western Allies, which include the old European East, the part of the old Soviet Union that is now deeply integrated into the West; Poland and the Baltic States in particular. But also domestically, in Germany itself.
Scholz accepts that. He can do that for two reasons: as long as he knows the traffic light factions in the Bundestag are behind him, and as long as the public mood is on his side. And the latter is so – war disenchantment in Germany is increasing, for which two reasons are decisive: Fewer and fewer Germans believe Ukraine is capable of a military victory against the Russians and the fear of the consequences of inflation and energy shortages is growing.
Taken in and of itself, the current decision by the traffic light factions to reject a request by the Union to immediately deliver Fuchs armored personnel carriers to Ukraine is shameful. Above all, it is the reason given by the Secretary of Defense. Lambrecht says the Union wants to “bleed dry” Germany militarily. This provokes an awkward question:
Also read: Ukraine war – tank discussion: Lambrecht accuses Union of “wanting to plunder the Bundeswehr”
Does Germany’s security really depend on 850 “foxes” that are long overdue? If that were the case, Germany should immediately throw itself on its back in front of Putin. Certainly, Germany has entered into alliance obligations and we are making our military contribution to the defense of NATO territory. But you can also hide behind it. If you want.
If the federal government wanted to deliver, it could do it too, as Norbert Röttgen from the Union is right. She just doesn’t want it. The reasons for this refusal vary. Which erodes the government’s credibility. Estonia, the Green Marieluise Beck draws attention to, supplies such tanks “from its own stocks”. Which also only means that the Estonians, although geographically situated in front of Russia, apparently do not have the impression that they are handing themselves over defenseless to Putin by supplying them with arms.
One last thing: the Union has been logically arguing about the Ukraine war and German weapons, and has been doing so for weeks. But one can assume that she is not just concerned with the well-being of Ukraine. The CDU and CSU want to drive the government apart, and they have good reasons for doing so. In the Ukraine war, the positions of the Greens, FDP and Union are actually closer to each other than those of the Greens, FDP and SPD. As far as Ukraine is concerned, there has long been an informal Jamaica coalition in the Bundestag.
But the traffic light still stops. And the current Fuchs decision shows that Friedrich Merz can forget his hopes of a fall as chancellor for a while.
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