The eagerly awaited state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia began on Sunday. The CDU and SPD are very close to each other in polls. Can CDU Prime Minister Wüst defend his office, or will SPD rival Kuchaty make it into the state chancellery?
The state elections began in North Rhine-Westphalia on Sunday in bright sunshine and a blue sky. Polling stations open at 8 a.m. Around 13 million people are entitled to vote in the most populous federal state. Recent opinion polls indicated a head-to-head race between the CDU with Prime Minister Hendrik Wüst and the SPD with top candidate Thomas Kutschaty.
In polls, the black-yellow coalition that has been in office for five years no longer has a majority. Until 2017, a red-green coalition was in power in NRW. The outcome of the state elections and possible future coalitions are considered completely open. The first forecast of the outcome of the election is expected shortly after the polling stations close at 6 p.m.
For the federal parties and the traffic light coalition of the SPD, Greens and FDP ruling in the federal government, the vote in NRW, also known as the “small federal election”, is an important test of mood. Last Sunday, the CDU with Prime Minister Daniel Günther clearly won the election in Schleswig-Holstein. Previously, the SPD with Anke Rehlinger had won the state election in Saarland.
CDU top candidate Wüst replaced Armin Laschet as Prime Minister of North Rhine-Westphalia just over six months ago after he failed as Union Chancellor candidate in the federal elections. Wüst wants to cast his vote in his home town of Rhede in Münsterland in the morning, while SPD challenger Kutschaty will vote in his home town of Essen.
Among the state elections this year, the NRW election is the most important indicator for the federal parties and the governing traffic light coalition under SPD Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Because of the high number of eligible voters, it is also known as the “small federal election”.
North Rhine-Westphalia state election 05/15/2022 – North Rhine-Westphalia state election 05/15/2022
In accordance with the current Corona Protection Ordinance, masks are not compulsory in the polling stations due to the corona pandemic. However, the state returning officer had advised in advance to voluntarily put on a mask for oneself and to protect the volunteer members of the electoral board from infection.
Voter turnout in 2017 was 65.2 percent. In several surveys, a tight race between the CDU and SPD has recently emerged. With around 30 to 32 percent, the CDU was just ahead of the SPD with 28 to 29 percent. In most surveys, the CDU has a lead of two to three percentage points over the SPD – a statement on the ranking of the two parties is not possible because of the statistical error rate. In addition, according to polls, many voters were still undecided about whom to vote for.
The Greens are in polls at 16 to 18 percent and could achieve their best state election result with their top candidate Mona Neubaur. The FDP could only count on 7 to 8 percent, the AfD with 6 to 8 percent. With around 3 percent, the left would again miss entering the state parliament.
The fact that NRW has long since ceased to be the “home state” of the SPD is shown by the fact that the CDU and SPD have alternated in government in recent years. In 2017, the CDU and FDP formed a coalition, until 2017 a red-green alliance was at the helm.
There could be several options for the next state government. According to surveys, in addition to a rather unpopular grand coalition of CDU and SPD, a black-green alliance or a Jamaica alliance of CDU, Greens and FDP would be possible. The SPD could also form a traffic light coalition with the Greens and FDP, as in the federal government. In some polls, it is not enough for a red-green majority.
NRW Prime Minister Wüst would like to continue governing with the FDP, but the Liberals – like the Greens – are keeping all options open. The head of the SPD in North Rhine-Westphalia and former state justice minister Kutschaty, who is also the deputy federal chairman of the SPD, can imagine the formation of a traffic light coalition like in the federal government. Kuchaty received strong support from Chancellor Scholz during the election campaign. Kuchaty and Scholz are also shown together on election posters. Wüst wants to cast his vote on Sunday morning in his home town of Rhede in the Münsterland region, while Kuschaty votes in his home town of Essen.
