According to Central Bank data, balance of payments in July 2020, in an unexpected way was in the black at $2.2 billion, which largely served as the very low imports of services and the good performance of oil exports. Neither a trade surplus or foreign exchange intervention of the Central Bank in the budgetary rules did not cover the negative balance on capital account — the export of capital from the private sector only in July totaled $6 billion, over seven months 2020, it grew by 53% amid falling export revenues and profits in the economy.Despite the expectations of market transition, the balance of current account balance to negative values, and it still failed. Valuation the balance of payments show that in July 2020, it was again significant (at the current time) plus $2.2 billion, due to the fact that the trade balance peaked in April $6.7 billion”oil Exports from Russia was to remain under pressure in may due to restrictions under the deal, OPEC+ (they are fully observed), however the previous month data show that Russia received $0,6–0,7 million in export earnings for every dollar change of the Urals in may—June, higher than the historical average receipts of $0.5 million for these months”— notice the analysts of ING Bank. A positive factor for the trade balance remained very low imports of services. “Substantial support (as in the trade balance in July.— “B”) still has depressed imports of services (two times lower year-on-year). Without it balance would be negative (as in the second quarter and in July). According to our estimates, July will make the greatest contribution to the cumulative balance on the current account in the third quarter (ceteris paribus) that will put pressure on the ruble,”— noted the analysts of Raiffeisenbank.At the same time, an additional $6 billion outflow in the balance of operations with private sector capital in July (recall that “b” previously described anomaly of the balance of payments for the second quarter, when the outflow of capital and inflow of foreign direct investments were mutual mirroring — see “Kommersant” on July 13) has led to the fact that the export of capital from the private sector since the beginning of the year reached $34.9 billion — is 53% higher than the same period of 2019.”In contrast to the situation a year earlier, when the decisive role in the formation of the figure played operations of banks, in the assessment period the key was approximately equal in volume to the increase in foreign assets of other sectors and the decline in Bank liabilities to non-residents”,— explained in the Central Bank.Since March 2020, the government is promoting the idea of increasing taxation on the export of dividends, royalties and interest payments abroad from 0-5% to 15% in particular, this week successfully completed negotiations with Cyprus. “Still unknown, PR��whether this will lead to less capital outflows or an increase in repatriation. This largely depends on whether the reason for the outflow of capital to tax optimization or other problems, including problems with the institutional environment and/or with prospects for growth,” noted ING. Raiffeisenbank believe that such an outflow of capital “caused not imported into the Russian Federation of export revenue and withdrawal of funds due to low rates on the local market and is one of the main arguments, which will keep the Central Bank from the significant reduction in the key rate from the current level (4.25% per annum)”.On the background of reduction of sales of foreign currency by the Central Bank and the absence of a significant inflow of funds in the BFL, the outflow in July was the main factor behind the monthly depreciation of the ruble against the dollar by 3% (see chart), and one of the main risk factors for Russian currency in the near future.Alexey Shapovalov
