While Germany is planning to tighten the corona rules from October, other countries are completely refraining from further restrictions. The well-known Danish epidemiologist Lone Simonson considers the strategy of the federal government to be wrong and explains why, from her point of view, Denmark is better off without restrictions.
From October there will be stricter corona measures in Germany again. Because of the high number of infections this summer – currently over 1.5 million people are infected – Federal Minister of Health Karl Lauterbach sees a catastrophic autumn ahead of us. Especially if a new variant were to emerge that might cause more severe disease than the dominant BA.5 variant.
Other countries around us, which have long since lifted all restrictions, are less worried about the future. Including Denmark. “We have chosen to say that the threat of corona is similar to that of seasonal influenza,” explains leading Danish epidemiologist Lone Simonsen from the University of Roskilde on “t-online”. That is why there is no other reaction in Denmark and social life is still open, Simonsen continues.
In fact, significantly fewer people are currently infected with Corona in Denmark than in Germany, where the incidence is currently 417 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. In Denmark, the rate is just over 180.
According to epidemiologist Simonsen, the situation is therefore relaxed. “We went through a big BA.2 wave in January and February, in which most Danes got infected,” she said on “t-online”. According to estimates by the state research institute SSI, two thirds of Danes were infected last winter – but the number of unreported cases is probably even higher. According to Simonsen, hospital stays have also increased in the current BA.5 wave, but they have stagnated and are currently even declining, according to the epidemiologist.
According to Simonsen, there are two main reasons why the situation in Denmark is currently so relaxed: “In our data we see that people who have had a natural infection trust that the vaccines will protect them really well from BA.5 are protected,” said Simonsen. So it was the combination of vaccination and natural immunity that had a positive effect.
“It’s going the way we thought it would,” says Simonsen: “We rely on the vaccines and we strengthened ourselves with natural infections that we had to go through.” In fact, according to data from the Danish Ministry of Health, the vaccination rate in Denmark is 77 percent regarding second and third vaccination – 68 percent even received a fourth vaccination. In Germany, on the other hand, the rate is somewhat lower: 76 percent of the population have basic immunization and 61 percent have been boosted.
However, Simonsen cannot understand why Germany is preparing for a possible catastrophic Corona fall. “We have to be aware that we cannot prevent infection,” she said on “t-online”. You therefore have to build up immunity in the population and also take a certain risk: “Yes, people get sick and unfortunately some people get seriously ill and some people die,” said Simonsen.
“As long as this is not more serious than seasonal flu, we believe there is no reason to act differently,” she said, referring to the Danish way. She does not see that there is a threatening situation for the hospital sector in Germany, as only a few beds in the intensive care unit are occupied. According to current data from the Divi intensive care register, there are currently 1,346 Covid patients in intensive care units in Germany. At the peak of the second wave in January 2021, there were over 5,500 severe Covid cases in intensive care units nationwide.
There are also numerous experts in Germany who classify the situation in a similar way to the Danish epidemiologist. In a position paper, for example, the group of experts around the doctors Thomas Voshaar and Matthias Schrappe and the medical statistician Gerd Antes calls for an end to government measures. “From an epidemiological and medical perspective, the virus is no longer a threat to the health system and the population, based on the current state of affairs,” it says. Because Covid, as a serious and life-threatening disease, is practically no longer seen in hospitals.
That is why Voshaar and his colleagues are convinced that no further measures are required for the autumn. Constant testing or even a mask requirement are no longer necessary – no quarantine either. Only risk groups would have to continue to be protected.
The Berlin epidemiologist Timo Ulrichs takes a very critical view of these demands. Because we would not have reached the endemic phase either in Germany or worldwide. He also contradicts the claim that the virus no longer poses a danger: “I think that 150 to 200 deaths every day are too many to claim that there is no longer a danger to the population,” he said when asked by FOCUS On-line.
“Even the health care system is not yet on the safe side: it may very well be that we will reach the capacity limits of the intensive care and normal wards again when the pandemic wave builds up on the summer wave in autumn – even if the courses are proportionately less severe “, the epidemiologist points out.
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Contrary to many German experts, the Danish epidemiologist Simonsen is also optimistic about the global situation. Data from the World Health Organization showed the worst was behind us. With regard to the infection situation and mortality, the numbers are declining worldwide – not everywhere at the same time, but in the overall global picture, she said on “t-online”.
There will certainly be new variants, but the epidemiologist still assumes that the pandemic will end in the near future: “I’m confident, no matter what happens,” she said to “t-online”. Maybe that won’t be the case this fall, but she’s convinced it’s only going to get better and end soon. “Maybe not this fall, but sometime in the near future we’ll look at other things.”
