Russia has called 300,000 men to arms. Most of them are poorly trained, poorly equipped and brought to the front far too quickly. A deadly endeavor sparked by Putin’s chaos.
On September 21, Vladimir Putin called for “partial mobilization.” 300,000 soldiers were to be drafted. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said only men with combat experience are called to arms. And these should reinforce the existing troops.
Shortly after Putin’s statement, numerous international experts predicted that this was impossible. The reasons:
Not 300,000 reservists with combat experience
On 1. The partial mobilization turned into a disaster for Putin. Hundreds of thousands of Russians fled the conscription abroad. The eager commanders in the regions conscripted all sorts of people – old people, drug addicts, completely inexperienced in combat. The Russians noted that the promise that only veteran soldiers would be called to arms was a farce.
Recruitment offices burned. Officials were attacked. A mass brawl broke out at a military base. On another to a shootout that left more than 10 dead.
Structures, equipment and trainers are missing
To 2. The assessment proved to be true. Especially since Putin doesn’t seem to have any interest in training the fighters for a long time. According to the “Institute for the Study of War” (ISW), the first units reached the front just a few days after the start of mobilization. Partly without training, partly only with a few days of uncoordinated training. And just a few days after arriving at the front, the first recruits were dead.
The New York Times quotes several Russian soldiers who were brought to the front just eleven days after being called up. When asked about his shooting training, one of them says, “Once. Three magazines.” The commander of the Southern Military District, Mikhail Zusko, is said to have ordered the new recruits to be sent to the front lines “immediately” and “without training”. He was later arrested because of the high death toll under his leadership.
In addition, there is a lack of equipment for the new fighters. Many of them have to pay for their own clothing and weapons. “They have no submachine guns, no clothes, no shoes,” an observer from Yekaterinburg told the New York Times. Parents describe how they themselves buy their children’s necessities and bring them to the military barracks.
Mobilization has little impact on the course of the war
On 3. Here, too, the experts were right. There is no effect of mobilization on the battlefield. The Ukrainian counter-offensive, which began in early September, continues unabated. The Russians manage – if at all – to hold the defensive positions. Only the newly deployed Iranian kamikaze drones are helping the Russians to counteract this.
The soldiers will end up as “cannon fodder”.
On 4. The new recruits are actually often used as cannon fodder. William Alberque from the International Institute for Strategic Studies tells the New York Times: “In the best case scenario, the soldiers receive basic equipment. In the worst case, nothing at all. These soldiers are literally cannon fodder.” But not only experts confirm this. Reports from the war also suggest this.
A man who was taken prisoner in Ukraine says: “Our commander asked us to go to the front at the very front. He and other recruits stayed 30, 40 meters behind us. Looking around, I saw that they weren’t very far behind us. They wanted to use us as cannon fodder to find out where the enemy’s exact position is.”
Read more here: Soldier from the evil Wagner group reveals what’s really going on at the front
Another new recruit describes the situation to his wife on the phone: “That’s right. There is no food here. Those who have no money eat the grain germs from the field. […] And they sent us prison inmates. They’re right at the front. And we sit behind it. If any of them want to escape, we kill them. […] And behind us is another line. We can’t go back there either. It’s impossible to run away. Your own people would shoot you.”
Read more here: “If we flee, our own people will shoot us”
And even a war fanatic Russian military blogger writes: “The result is that untrained boys are thrown to the front. Zinc coffins are already arriving back to Chelyabinsk, Yekaterinburg or Moscow. You told us they would get an education. That they would only come to the front after weeks. Have you lied again?”
Read more here: “Some Russian commanders should be shot”
Even in Russia, there have now been unusual statements.
Vladimir Putin confirmed that there are already 16,000 recruits at the front (editor’s note: the true number is likely to be significantly higher). Some of them received only five to ten days of training. However, the training should continue on site.
An agency in the Chelyabinsk region last week confirmed the deaths of new recruits. “Unfortunately, the military service has confirmed the information about the death of five conscripts from the South Urals,” it said.
So far, the West has assumed that 70,000 to 80,000 Russian fighters lost their lives in this war. Recently, Russian journalists even revealed the figure of 90,000 dead soldiers or soldiers no longer able to fight. And these numbers relate mostly to those units that fought before mobilization. So better trained and sometimes much more motivated soldiers.
Now a torrent of untrained or poorly trained recruits with no combat experience and no strategic knowledge are coming to the front. They replenish units that have been severely depleted by the war. They must immediately face a Ukrainian offensive aimed at recapturing all annexed territories. Even Russian military bloggers estimate that at least 10,000 of the new recruits will die and another 40,000 will be wounded in the next three months.
The war in Ukraine is at a turning point, says military expert Carlo Masala. Ukraine is now under a lot of pressure and Putin is using drones because missiles are too expensive, according to the politics professor. The Kremlin boss could now open a second front and then offer a ceasefire, says the expert in a “Stern” podcast.
Russia wants to ramp up production of its own aircraft as quickly as possible. The state-owned company Rostec makes it clear how many planes should be delivered by 2030.
Hardly anyone “reads” Vladimir Putin and the Russians as knowledgeably as the Russian writer Viktor Erofeev, who fled to Germany. Germany’s Chancellor should meet with him. And be prepared for some uncomfortable truths.
