Specially for Rossiyskaya Gazeta Mikhail Kogan, head of Department of analytical researches “Higher school of financial management”, described the factors influencing the ruble and gave a forecast on the course before the end of summer:
– In the near future, the expert predicts, the Euro may take as a benchmark the level of 82 of the ruble exchange rate – dollar – 73 rubles. After the independence Day in the United States, before whom markets generally prevailing optimism, the mood can change.
week starts the season of quarterly corporate reports, which is hardly present positive surprises. Moreover, in recent time deteriorated epidemiological situation with COVID-19 in the world. Including in the United States, forcing the authorities of individual States to return in some form or other limitations.
For this reason, even if on Monday the index of business activity in the US service sector 17-00 show an optimistic picture for the month of June (and Friday for similar indices in Europe and China), market participants will begin to give them less importance. They will understand that in July the situation could get worse.
To a more cautious behaviour would be to push the rhetoric between the US and China after the adoption of the Hong Kong safety act. In addition to this, investors as you get closer to the November elections in the US will begin to prefer more conservative tools, as one of the candidates – Joe Biden – has promised to cancel the trump tax breaks.
If the impact of these factors will remain in force throughout the summer, the dollar will be able to reach higher levels 75-77 rubles (according to the CBR, 77 rubles, the dollar was worth 23 April). And the Euro – subject to the weakening of the dollar in pair with it – up to 88 roubles (by this indicator, the Euro was approaching March 20).
