a Officially, Lukashenka won the election with his traditional result “about 80% of the votes”. The first round of street battles with those who these numbers are not believed, also left for the authorities: by disabling Internet and bet on the power, the protests failed to disperse. But this is only the beginning of the confrontation, which will continue on Monday. The province receives very unpleasant for Farther signals.
The first protests and detentions in Minsk began directly at the polling stations immediately after closing. The fact that the government is strongly encouraged, and in some cases, and urged citizens to vote early, while the opposition United around Svetlana Tikhanovski, campaigned for the vote “day to day”. As a consequence, near the capital of a separate election commissions formed huge queues, work in some of them extended, but to take part in the elections in the end could not attend.
A similar situation exists also in Moscow and Kiev, where only one plot in the Embassy of Belarus, while the number of those wishing to vote in the thousands. Such a stir in the political history of the Republic have never been yet, and the local equivalent of the Central election Commission declares huge turnout of almost 85%.
Office, one way or another affiliated with the regime, published exit polls, according to which incumbent President Alyaksandr Lukashenka is gaining from 72 to 84 percent of the vote. The first results announced by the CEC, also revolve around the rate of 80%, and in some areas, according to the CEC head Lidia Yermoshina, the result Farther surpasses 90%, and he won absolutely all areas.
Here it is necessary to understand the following. Independent exit polls in Belarus not held is prohibited. Without a special license cannot be organized at all polls on political topics, including “voting” on websites. Thus, in contrast to the situation in Russia, the voting results are published only in terms of regions, not individual sites.
The Network was lined with dozens of protocols from polling stations in Minsk, which Tikhanovski ahead of Lukashenko at times, but to compare these data with official is simply impossible. Exitpoll in Moscow and Kiev, to hold that the Belarusian legislation does not interfere, also give victory Tikhanovski with a huge advantage, but the results of voting at foreign sites are usually not considered to be significant.
In General, from the point of view of the opposition, “real results” “mirrored”, that is, 80% scored just Tikhanovski. Supposedly this is evidenced by the alternative counting of votes under protocols issued directly on the plots. But the CEC categorical: the sum over the areas Lukashenko has received as much as always received four votes out of five, and second place – as traditionally – took not even Tikhanovski, and the candidate “against all”.
But the ensuing events proved that Belarus now is still not the same, which are all used.
As predicted by the newspaper VIEW, many Belarusians are the official results have not believed, and closer to ten o’clock in the evening began to gather in the centers of their cities. In this case, the geography of the protests is striking it reach reports of demonstrations and clashes with the police came not only from the regional centers, but also from relatively small settlements across the Republic.
In some cases, it was stated that the police “sided with the people” refused to disperse the protesters. In this context, it was mentioned, for example, Zhodino (65 thousand people), Lida (102 thousand) and Baranovichi (175 thousand), but confirming the video where the security forces dropping their shields and begin to fraternize with the opposition only came from Kobrino (52 thousand). In addition, the head of the administration of Pinsk (126 thousand) have personally went to negotiate for the protesters who have surrounded his residence.
Thus, the protests turned out, of course, mass – the most massive in the history of Belarus, but to call them truly not many. Personnel from Minsk (a revolution, as we know, are made in the capitals) you can talk about the thousands of protesters, not tens of thousands.
Another thing is that the situation in the capital of the extreme – Minsk has effectively been under martial law. There strapped huge amount of technology and security officers, many Central streets are closed, entrance to the city is limited.
The center of the protests was the Masherov Avenue, which is usually carried out military parades. Now there turned real fights. Trying to build the barricades, the security forces stopped on the vine and said to the protesters as tough in the course were water cannons, tear times, rubber bullets and stun grenades, active use of which predetermined headers of explosions in the city center.
In the end, “the police” dispersed the protesters, and close to four in the morning the traffic on some streets was restored. What is happening is something similar to the game in Cossacks-robbers – with the attacks of the security forces scattered the crowd, then to gather in a different place, but the opposition ranks were thinning every hour. It became clear that the first round Lukashenko won.
This intermediate success the government has not even turning Minsk to city-fortress, and almost total interruption of the Internet. A communication problem occurred in the Republic during the whole day, but the evening has increased, many sites – both the opposition and the government was forced to shut down. The Internet some where still there, but very slow, which is why forward from Belarus video and even photos can only those who have satellite communication��Yu, and the opposition lost the opportunity to coordinate the protests.
Video private brutal detentions and pictures of bloody people still flowed into the Network and theoretically can spur protests in the future. In particular, the huge excitement was caused by footage of a police van knocks down one of the protesters. After a few hours it was announced about the first victim – a Eugene Zaichkina, however, official confirmation no.
Throughout all these events, Lukashenko and other official authorities, with the exception of the CEC, was silent. Repeatedly there were messages that the President has not left the territory of the Republic, but neither one of them was not based on any credible source.
The abundance of rumors and stuffing with a minimum of official and confirmed by real evidence of information – a distinctive part of the Belarusian version of the “Maidan”. This is a consequence of “jamming”, and that journalists in the Republic do not stand on ceremony – take into custody, without making a difference between correspondents liberal “Rain” and stringers Russia Today.
It is obvious that Monday’s information blockade will continue, and the security forces will face a second round of “cops and robbers” on the streets of Minsk and other cities. Sunday night has become a kind of rehearsal, but the number of protesters in the second and subsequent days you can make predictions on the further development of the conflict.
Yet no serious premises to ensure that Lukashenko could lose the capital, as it was in Yanukovich’s Ukraine in 2013-2014. At the same time, the old Man can “backfire” weakening of regional and district centers by shifting a significant part of the security forces in Minsk: contrary to custom, in the province show a significant potential for protest, and local authorities – some loyalty to the protesters.
Another important factor is the possibility of a mass strike, with the idea that worn by the opposition. Officially, the headquarters Tikhanovski strongly discourages protesters from violent actions and call for civil peace.
For Lukashenka, it is fraught with war of attrition. And if in the end the incumbent President will still be able to retain power, conflict with own people, it will inevitably be weakened. Its legitimacy will be undermined, relations with part of the elites is broken, and the bridges with the West, hastily erected in recent years, again burned.
Russia is satisfied.
