Belarus: anxious days

the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, speaking at a rally in his support, and reiterated that he will not allow the collapse of the state. “We have built with you, despite all the difficulties, despite all the shortcomings, the beauty of the country. To whom you decided to give? If someone wants to give the country even when I’m dead, I won’t allow it,” – said the Belarusian leader. According to him, Belarus will perish as an independent state, if they agreed to hold repeat elections called for “NATO leadership.” He noted that these appeals were heard from Lithuania, Latvia, Poland and Ukraine. “Circle view: tanks, planes on takeoff in 15 minutes from our borders,” he added, addressing to the supporters of the Belarusian President.

Earlier in the meeting in the heart of the strategic management of the defense Ministry, the Belarusian leader acknowledged that his opponents “begin to shake the situation and already made it to labor collectives”. “We see what is happening. We don’t need to lull peaceful actions and demonstrations. We manuals color revolutions read,” – said Lukashenko. He warned against threats to military personnel, law enforcement officers and their families: “don’t play with fire.”

Lukashenko was informed about the conversation with President of Russia Vladimir Putin: “Agreed: at first our request we be provided all possible assistance to ensure security.” The President of Belarus confirmed that on this account there is an agreement with Russia within the Union state and CSTO, and, “as such issues come under this contract.” According to Lukashenko, in Poland and Lithuania these days are NATO military exercises, “not to see it, quietly watching, naturally, we can’t.”

“Worried about the tragic cases of loss of lives, in an effort to immediately stop the bloodshed, determined to pave the way for a political settlement of the crisis, the parties have agreed to the following” – so goes the preamble to the agreement, 2014, between the then President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych and the opposition. Once again reread the text on behalf of the European Union was signed by the foreign Ministers of Germany and Poland, as well as a senior representative of the French foreign Ministry. It says on the refusal of the opposition from the force, letting the opposition of illegal weapons and other reasonable steps to normalize the situation. Now consider the results of the European mediation: Ukrainian opposition has not fulfilled any of the item from the signed agreement, in the country there was an armed coup, and the Western signatories of the document together “washed his hands”, saying that it is not responsible for the incident.

Today the European Union offers to act as mediator between the official Minsk and the Belarusian opposition to President Alexander Lukashenko. In the forefront of pseudomonotone again Poland, Germany and Lithuania. Everything happens under the well-known in Ukraine “noble” pretext – to resolve the current crisis. And a familiar scenario – if Lukashenko refuses mediation, against the Republic will impose sanctions. This again with the filing of Warsaw agreed for videoconference unified country of Europe. As writes British “Gardian”, Hungary, Austria and Greece reacted to the idea of sanctions against Belarus without enthusiasm, but to block promoted by Poland and Lithuania the decision were not.

European initiatives Lukashenko reacted negatively: “When I heard this, thought for a long time: mediation between who and what. That is, we will act as one of the parties. About the second side do not speak. In General, the government has created abroad for Belarus.” According to Lukashenko, “no government or abroad or anywhere else the Republic does not need to manage it will never be a country”.

the fact that the Belarus opposition rallies were coordinated from abroad, the Belarusian authorities stated from the very beginning of the protests. However, in the last days of Western complicity in Belarusian events becomes even more obvious. Lithuanian President urges the official Minsk to hold new elections and supported the establishment in his country of a focal point for the transfer of power in Belarus. Ex-candidate for the Belarusian leader Valery Tsepkalo moved to Warsaw, where, according to his associates, he held “meetings with very influential politicians out of Washington.” One of the most popular among the opposition to the Telegram channels, which distributes fakes about Belarusian events, run by two Pro-Western activist who lives in Warsaw. And working in institutions, financed by Poland and Lithuania. Almost all of the Telegram channels are operating today against the official Minsk, anonymous. They are always talking about the atrocities of the Belarusian authorities and urging opponents of Lukashenko to go to the streets to fight the Riot police. Informed “the Russian newspaper” talked about “recipes McFaul”, the former US Ambassador to Russia, who is considered an expert on color revolutions. Their essence – blood in the streets and the elite division. So it was in Ukraine, in Serbia and in Georgia. Now we see how this scenario is implemented in Belarus, aiming to bring to an irreversible split in the society.

After the 2010 presidential elections, the Belarusian authorities quite harshly suppressed protests are dissatisfied with the outcome of the vote of the opposition. In response, the EU has used in relation to the Belarus sanctions. But after the official Minsk has intensified dialogue with Brussels, sanctions against Lukashenko and members of his team were shot. Today, the European Union raises again the question of the restoration of personal Sanktsy and the freezing of assets of officials close to Lukashenko. However, according to Western experts, this time the EU went further, groundlessly refusing to recognize the results of elections in Belarus. Nevertheless, the question of legitimacy created by the government of Belarus in exile from the United Europe is not worth it, because this step will completely block all the channels for further dialogue with the official Minsk. So, will push Lukashenka towards further rapprochement with Russia, which appears to be the most feared opponents of the Belarusian President.

Until now, the whole policy of the European Union and the USA against Belarus was to create the illusion that the West is ready to accept the leadership of Lukashenko and will not disturb him. In the memoirs of the former assistant to the President for national security John Bolton recalled how restrained of the President of Belarus from integration with Russia. And then, in February 2020, paid a visit to Belarus of Secretary of state Mike Pompeo and sounded his promise of 100 percent to provide Republic with American oil. The thaw was immediately used various kinds of non-profit organizations and foundations from the neighboring NATO countries that have received a certain freedom to work in the Republic. Today the Belarusian foreign Ministry continues to declare its readiness to dialogue with the European Union in Brussels called the area “one of the priorities in the foreign policy of Belarus” and argued: “the EU sanctions is the end of the European policy towards Belarus”. Refusing to see that the neighbors of Belarus has publicly committed itself to removal of Alexander Lukashenko from power and sanctions are only a small part of the Arsenal that will be used for this purpose.

Immediately after his election, Alexander Lukashenko declared: “Russia will always cooperate, always be together.” I will add that in Moscow such cooperation and integration was ready. From the beginning of the crisis, Moscow has emphasized his willingness to lend a hand to Belarus. For its part, the official Minsk made an important step, which significantly marred the Russian-Belarusian dialogue: freed by the Russians (previously they attributed the alleged plans to destabilize the situation in the Republic. – Approx. ed). After returning home detainees in Belarus, the Russians told reporters that was supposed to protect objects of “Rosneft” in Venezuela, but due to problems with flight connections for some time stayed at a sanatorium in Belarus. There at night and detained by the security services of Belarus. But now, it seems that the incident is settled, which caused severe irritation in the Ukraine. It was called the liberation of the people of the Russian Federation unfriendly step towards Kiev. But it “forgot” that Ukraine “as a friend” ne recognized the results of the Belarusian elections and among States in support of the idea of creating Belarusian government in exile.

After the rally in support of Lukashenko was held in Minsk opposition rally, which also attracted a lot of people. He showed that the country had accumulated a lot of serious concerns of society. That’s just they need to be resolved peacefully, within the country, without imposed under the threat of sanctions outside interference. When in European capitals dictate to the citizens of Belarus, they hold new elections or not to hold, when they declare of who to be and who not to be President and what should be the policy of the Republic, it means the end of independence and statehood.