Restrictions on the activities of the arbitration courts imposed on the background distribution COVID-19, slowed down the dynamics of growth of bankruptcies of developers. For the first half of the market has left almost 20% fewer companies than the year before. But the results just 2020 could be less encouraging. The hardest part will have a small regional developers, voluntarily folding construction because of the inability to obtain project financing. This trend may lead to the fact that 40 cities with a population over 100 thousand people there will be nobody to build housing.For the first half of 2020 in Russia of bankruptcy procedure initiated against 73 developers erecting a total of 1.2 million square meters of housing. These figures are lower than those of the previous year by 19% and 40% respectively. These data are presented in the research of the Rating Agency building complex (RASK). Analysts attribute the current situation with the restriction of the pandemic is the work of the courts: in the second quarter they have only considered urgent matters. This is confirmed by the data of RUSK, according to which 79% of new petitions in bankruptcy had on the first quarter of the year.Analysts of “Talana” I believe that the bankruptcy of legal entities gives an incomplete picture. In their opinion, unscrupulous developers bankrupt them for non-performance, while the brands of the company continue to operate. New cases of bankruptcies of developers in Russia are mainly due to the small regional companies, says CEO RASK Nikolay Alekseenko. It is estimated that if a year ago the average volume of construction departing from the market of the player was 25.5 thousand sq m by the end of the first half of 2020 — already 15, 9 thousand sq. m. the Same trend was noticed in the “Talan”. They say that the number of local developers in the first half decreased by 18%, and the volume of construction — 24%. Experts explain that companies operating in the same region, to a lesser extent protected from the risks associated with demand fluctuations.They are unable to adapt to the transition to project financing: low profitability of projects in the regions and the lack of own funds at the start of construction does not allow developers to negotiate with the banks, explains the Director of “Floors” Ildar Khusainov. In the end, it is estimated that 15-20% of small developers in Russia has made the decision to finish current and start new projects.Nikolay Alekseenko warns that the departure from the regional market of conscientious developers in the future can be a serious problem. Estimated RUSK, about 40 cities with population over 100 thousand people and almost no new housing is being built. “That is about 8 million people not even hypothetically can participate in the program of state mortgage credit��of tomania,” says Mr. Alekseenko. He suggests that while in these cities housing should be built by the state order, and the improvement of the economic climate there may come the developers at the Federal level or neighboring regions.”From the beginning serious problems in the business before filing the application usually takes not less than six months”,— says the expert. He expects that by the end of the year the number of bankruptcies will be comparable with a value of 2019, when the market went 184 developer to build 4 million square metres of housing.Analysts of “Talan” predict that problems will continue to have local players, while the withdrawal from the market of large companies is unlikely. This is consistent with the General trend of consolidation in the construction market. The project Manager of the company “neo the Center” Sergey Okunev does not rule out increasing the number of the bankrupt for the year of developers. Experts fear that the reduced competition in the regional markets will complicate the control over pricing and will contribute to the rising cost of housing in the primary market.Alexandra Mertsalova, Khalil Amine
