The Russian automotive industry on the background of the coronavirus is experiencing perhaps the most serious crisis in its recent history — more profound than in 2008-2009. The market, which never fully recovered even after the crisis, according to analysts, will reach in 2019 in the best case scenario in 2023. Although the state attempts to help the recovery of demand in support of a relatively small and unevenly distributed even between the localized players. As a result, some foreign companies may be forced to curtail production in Russia.The Association of European businesses, summing up the results of car sales in Russia in the first month of full restrictions, called it “black April” for the first time in the history of the Russian automotive industry sales of cars and light commercial vehicles fell by 72.4% of.Demand in the second quarter will be significantly reduced due to the closure of dealerships quarantined and mode of isolation of the citizens, saying in a Kia. Although theoretically, the car can be sold online, at the biggest market of the Russian Federation — Moscow and region — dealers this option was not available. The situation is complicated as the closing of service stations (now open), where the car passed presale and restriction of mobility due to the input of a digital pass, said dealers.What is happening is not like problems in the Russian market earlier note to Kia: “We are not faced with a complete stop of work for more than two thirds of dealers”. Inflation, in contrast to 2008, remains low, but the compression of market is inevitable amid the redistribution of customer priorities due to falling incomes, according to the holding.This crisis is similar to the previous only partly due to the fall of the oil price and exchange rate volatility of the ruble, agree to Nissan, the main difficulty is limiting because of the epidemic. To April the fall was not repeated in the coming months, you need to allow the dealerships with the enforcement of health, noted in Volkswagen.From forecasts automakers try to refrain. The interlocutor of “Kommersant” in one of the foreign companies believes that with the gradual recovery of oil prices, the demand for cars may return to the level of 2019 in the third quarter (after falling by 50-60% in the second quarter). AVTOVAZ believe that this year the market will “show a significant negative trend compared to the year 2019, with a very low sales volume in April—may and the possible beginning of a slight recovery since June”.In Volkswagen say that during previous crises, the recovery took two to three years, and was by no means guaranteed (e.g. the Russian market has not reached the level of 2012). Dmitry Babanskiy of SBS Consulting believes that the level of 2019 demand may veralso include in 2023 “moderate scenario”. Vladimir Bespalov from “VTB the Capital” expects a decline by 20% this year, not risking to estimate the recovery rate. He also notes that after the crisis of 2014-2015, the state has become a permanent factor of influence on the market, distorting the true picture of demand.State support is strange predmetnika all the players agree that government support demand is needed now. In the automobile segment, while there is actually only one measure — concessional loans, invented in the 2008-2009 crisis. On the background of the pandemic, the government has increased funding for programs to 7 billion rubles to 17 billion rubles In the Ministry of industry and trade expects that by increasing funding and sold an additional 50 thousand cars.However, Volkswagen believes that an additional increase of demand it will not. The head of Department of autocrediting of Rusfinans-Bank Alexey Borodavkin says that the share of loans issued by the Bank on state programs, in April compared with March, remained unchanged at 20%: “one should Not expect that concessional lending will constrain the fall in the market of new cars. It is, rather, the slowdown in demand reduction”.Peak customer interest in preferential programs was in March, noted in VTB, in April the share of concessional loans in the total loans portfolio increased to 36% — half that of last year. The Bank believes that concessional loans — it is a significant measure of support, however, the “benefit programs may cover only part of the requirements of the total potential demand”.The Volkswagen see more potential renewal of grants to support the trade-in, as the measure has proved its effectiveness during the previous crisis. First recycling program was launched in 2010 and were given the opportunity to receive a discount of 50 thousand rubles for the purchase of a new car upon delivery of the old one in the scrap.The government is considering to further subsidize car loans for cars of Russian production in the case that the old car for trade-in. In Minpromtorge say that such a client may receive a discount of 10% from the initial payment, the age of the leased vehicle must exceed six years. In the respondents ‘ b ‘ banks about a new program I don’t know. Unknown parameters and announced the “Affordable rent” with a budget of 2,5 billion RUB.— except that this oversizing on favorable terms, which should help upgrade parks carsharing. In “the Europlan” it is said that while the terms of the program to the end not formulated expecting it until the end of may: the program will be able to participate and individuals.Trucks are not tenutosi the most tangible measures of support were received by manufacturers of commercial vehicles.mouth. The government plans to conduct large-scale purchases for state needs by redistributing this year the volume 2021-2022 years. Already carried out one order for ambulances — almost 1.3 thousand cars at 5.2 billion rubles Vladimir Putin promised 5 billion rubles on the purchase of an ambulance. About 25 thousand new cars will get in this year, the interior Ministry, Asgardia, the defense Ministry, the emergencies Ministry and other structures. In General, the amount of forward public procurement in may—July will be 33.5 thousand machines, said the head of the Ministry of industry and trade Denis Manturov “Russia 24”.In the sector considered these measures insufficient, although the rate of decline here is less than in the automobile segment. The evaluation of the CEO of “Volvo Group Trucks Russia” Sergey Yavorskiy (brands Volvo Trucks and Renault Trucks), the market of sales of trucks of European manufacturers in the first four months decreased by 10%.However, the GAZ group, which is the main player in the LCV segment — assure that the commercial vehicle market faster than the other falls during economic crises and slower. The team estimates, orders for their cars for may—June fell by 85-90%. “After the financial losses from the US sanctions have no Gas reserves to neutralize the negative factors from the crisis caused by the epidemic. Now that Gas has no order, under attack over half a million people in our chain of suppliers”,— emphasized in the company. In April, the GAS was working in the mode of four-day sittings after two weeks of inactivity. This month GAS was suspended from 1 to 11 may. In June it is planned simple by moving a corporate holiday, which is traditionally held in late July — early August.In addition to support through public procurement in the commercial transportation already working on the program of preferential leasing — financing will increase to 8 billion rubles But in Gaza believe that it will work only after recovery of demand, which will not happen before the end of the year. The Kommersant’s sources suggested that the government order is not able alone to ensure utilization of the Russian manufacturers. Against this background, like in the automobile segment, be relevant recycling program — so the state Duma Committee on ekonompolitike and industry have proposed to ban the operation of older trucks. In February, the Deputy head of the Ministry Alexander Morozov said that there offer to dramatically increase with the 2021 base rate of transport tax for commercial vehicles of a class “Euro 3” and below.The unequal position the Ministry expects that measures to support demand will increase sales by 220 million pieces of equipment in all segments. But a number of interlocutors of “Kommersant” sees imbalances in the state. She is now more focused on the commercial vehicle segment, believe in Volkswagen. At the same time, the socio-economic importance of the automobile segment “is even higher because of the larger number of suppliers, dealers, region�� presence of a greater number of jobs and paid taxes.” The segment of commercial vehicles is supported by large state orders and have even increased their share during the crisis, they say at Nissan. The main injured segment sales in the medium price segment is partially or completely not satisfy the conditions of state support.So, the state supports the purchase vysokomineralizovannyh and relatively cheap cars. For example, recent years, the program of preferential car loan was applied only to machines to 1 million rubles, that is mostly on cars of AVTOVAZ. Now consider the cost increase to 1.5 million rubles (see “Kommersant” on March 24).In Nissan believe that it is necessary to expand programs demand for cars up to 2-2,5 mln., as well as the expansion of categories enjoying the benefits buyers for large families, medical professionals, social workers, first responders, military. All locally produced cars should be subject to the conditions of support, according to Volkswagen: “If you are only supported certain models, some plants will be underutilized, which would adversely affect the socio-economic situation in the regions where such plants”. MAN I agree that the situation on the market significantly would improve the extension support for all players.However, for example, in Volvo Trucks see the need to differentiate the support based on the volume of local production and the importance of enterprises for the economy of the Russian Federation.A disadvantage of corporations is fixed not only by the conditions for receiving state support, but new rules of payment of presubsidy. This year, subsidies that are de facto payment of car recycling fee will be paid depending on the degree of localization, which worsens the conditions for the less localized players.Compression of rencana this background in the market has increased the rumors about the departure of individual players. After the crisis of 2014-2015 production in Russia has already closed General Motors: the St. Petersburg plant is still vacant, as the power of the Ford, which turned the automobile segment in Russia in 2019. The pandemic has led to suspended production in other markets. So, in China, Renault has decided to withdraw from the joint venture with Chinese Dongfeng Motor Group for the production of gasoline cars, planning to concentrate on electric cars and light commercial vehicles.In Russia potentially threatened another member of the Alliance Nissan, which is presented here and the budget brand Datsun. The last Assembly in the Russian Federation is conducted on the basis of models Lada AVTOVAZ, Nissan also has a plant in St. Petersburg with a capacity of 100 thousand cars a year, which produces the Qashqai, X-Trail and Murano. Crossover Terrano gather together with the platform of Renault Duster. In 2019, the St. Petersburg plant Nissan reduced its production by 7.4%, to 52.3 thousand. A large part of the PRizvodstva accounts for the Qashqai crossover, its production increased by 3% to 27.3 thousand cars, reports “AUTOSTAT” with reference to company data. Nissan’s sales last year fell 20%, to nearly 70 thousand cars.In 2019, Reuters reported Nissan’s plans to reduce capacity in small markets to focus on sales in the United States and China. Later, Nikkei reported that the Datsun build in Togliatti will be phased out in 2020, which refutes the Russian office of Nissan. In may, Bloomberg once again wrote about the possible failure of the Nissan brand Datsun in the framework of the spending cuts.In Russia, Nissan is now moved their production to one-shift operation and in March there spoke about plans to cut 450 employees. From 18 may, the group announced the return of the previous operation. The source of “Kommersant” notes that if the company intends to rely on models Juke and Qashqai in Europe, it is logical to continue the production on the Russian market. However, if sales will continue to decline, the question arises about the appropriateness of maintaining capacity in the country.Of concern and the future of the PSA, sales of passenger cars which in Russia in 2019 fell by 13.4%, to 8 thousand cars. Group, like many foreign players, will also affect the differentiation of presubsidy. The production of PSMA in Kaluga, where are produced cars of the French group (Peugeot, Citroen and Opel), and Mitsubishi uploaded mainly due to the recent brand. But the Japanese company has an opportunity in 2023-2024 go to other sites — for example, helping to load the Nissan plant in St. Petersburg. At the same time the world level of PSA is in the process of merging with Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA). The new Alliance could become the fourth automotive conglomerate in the world in production and third in revenue. Now, according to AFP, the deal was under threat against the background of the coronavirus. But any decision to reduce the presence of PSA in Russia, probably, will be accepted only after the completion of the merger with the FCA, says Vladimir Bespalov. With this agreement and the source “b” among the dealers of the concern.The Ministry of industry and trade “Kommersant” has stated that while none of the automakers have not declared their withdrawal from Russia. Vladimir Bespalov, notes that, despite all the problems, the Russian market is big enough and has the potential to CIS markets, excluding Ukraine. In the future, says the analyst, it remains attractive, especially with the tightening of environmental regulations in the EU and downs of the market in China.Olga Nikitina
