Especially for “the Russian newspaper” Peter Pushkarev, chief analyst at TeleTrade, said that should happen to the trend of weakening not continued:
– the Russian currency – said the expert – will need a fresh inflow of investment capital targeted primarily for the purchase of debt securities (OFZ). Or, alternatively, on the Russian “blue chips”. And whether there will be sufficient number of such free and interested Russian capital, with very high probability will determine the dynamics of the Asian markets. Especially the Chinese exchanges in the early morning hours of Monday.
Established in China today, the investment pattern is that stock indexes of China had and how to fly, and to lose it by the end of the last week is already half of the July gains. As a result, to predict where it will swing from the start of the week stood for a while in the Asian balance of scales, is not so simple.
Wait so long sentiment from Asia, which, in principle, could support the people’s Bank of China. And before the opening of trading are as about the announcement of level the basic Bank lending rates – it is scheduled for 4: 30 am Moscow time.
it will be Interesting for the ruble and it will be decided whether Asian, and particularly Chinese, investors to maintain at least a little bit of oil futures with physical purchases after oil prices stayed at very decent levels in response to two events. The first is the decision of OPEC+, which, recall, was to add from 1 August the production volumes. The second is voiced by representatives of the Saudi forecast of a gradual growth in fuel demand even before the onset of autumn.
However, the impact of the oil on the dynamics of the ruble is in any case smooth, because at higher prices the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank automatically according to the budget rule and direct a smaller share of funds from foreign exchange earnings on a daily interventions to support the ruble. But the dynamics of stock exchanges of America and Asia really determines the willingness or unwillingness of investment funds to allocate more free capital to carry-trade operations in Russia. Here though they bear the currency risk, but can gain a few percent per annum for coupon payments.
In the case of favourable exchanges, the dollar is able to quickly slip in the range of 70.7 to 71.3 rubles. But if the quotes in the stock markets of Asia and Europe, where the main stock exchange opened an hour earlier than in Russia, still fall, it will overcome the inertia of the weakening of the ruble. And then, most likely, the dollar immediately with the opening of trading will rise slightly above the psychological level of 72 rubles.
while maintaining uncertainty on world markets in the first days of the week, the dollar can rewrite and the July highs, reaching to a level of 72.5 ruble.
the Scatter for the primary external exchange of positive or negative extends for the pair Euro/dollar in the range of 81.5 to 83.5. The corridor for the Euro, as you can see, is shifted slightly upward. This is because in the world markets it was the Euro, not the dollar, ended the week major chord.
