Especially for “the Russian newspaper” Sergey Drozdov, an analyst CC “FINAM”, spoke about the impact on the exchange rate decisions of the Central Bank’s key rate:
– Friday, June 19, the Bank of Russia will decide on the interest rate and will outline prospects for the future course of monetary policy. Expectations of lower Central Bank key interest rate by one percent, which may have supported the strengthening of the ruble has already been priced in by the market, – the expert warns. – In this connection this week, the Russian currency will become more dependent on sentiment on global financial and commodity markets. And in the amplification correction on the stock exchanges of Europe and USA, the pair dollar/ruble may test the mark 70,60-71.
in Addition to the correction in global stock markets, additional pressure on the ruble have retreated from their maximum values the oil price. This happened because of fears of players on the global energy demand and renewed risks of a second wave of the disease Covid-19. In the end, oil prices fell by almost 9 percent.
However, the repetition of the March collapse of oil prices is unlikely. Work measures to stabilize the market took OPEC+. However, amid speculation against the second wave of the coronavirus and expectations of slower global economic recovery, we cannot exclude that the price of the futures contract of Brent crude could fall to around $ 35 per barrel.
Meanwhile, investors started selling overheated risky assets fearing for the future prospects of the American economy, not having heard from the head of the Federal reserve specifics in relation to another stimulus.
So, last week during the press conference, Powell suggested that in the short term coronavirus pandemic will exert strong pressure on economic growth, inflation and employment. And in the medium term, it carries considerable risks for the U.S. economy.
However, in the long term, the fed still intends to use all of your tools for as long as is necessary to support the economic recovery.
A curve of Treasury bonds has gone up after the regulator has expressed its commitment to adhere to the current pace of purchases of Treasury and mortgage bonds. This essentially means that the fed has advocated for a reduction in the cost of borrowing, which because of rising Treasury yields increase the price of anti-crisis measures of the government.
