In March, the Russian companies have increased their exports in monetary terms by almost a third to 2.2 billion dollars. (over the same period last year), follows from the data of the FCS. While the three leaders – wheat (plus 245 million dollars), sunflower (plus 114 million dollars.) sunflower oil (plus 88 million dollars).
According to the Centre for industry expertise Rosselkhozbank, in 2020 the export of agricultural products will exceed the target (25 billion dollars). This contributes to the weakening of the ruble, and measures of state support of agriculture. In addition, to increase Russia’s presence in the global market will help the gap that existed before the global supply chain – our country located to the markets of the Far and Middle East and Central Asia is closer than most other food exporters.
the Crisis of 2020 showed how sudden rupture of the production and logistics links can cause unexplained shortage of goods in one country and a glut in another region of the world, says the head of the Center for economic forecasting of Gazprombank Darya Snitko.
for Example, in February Australia are unable to deliver avocado to the traditional market of China, Spain is not completely removed and not sold strawberries, gives examples of the expert. 94% of the Fortune 1000 (the list of the largest U.S. companies) reported disruptions in supplies from COVID-19.
But further consequences of the pandemic may be much worse. According to forecasts of the world food programme (WFP), the regime of self-isolation and economic recession triggered by the COVID-19 can lead to famine “of biblical proportions” if the mankind will not ensure food security. According to the WFP, before the end of 2020 with a severe food shortage in the world may face 265 million people – twice more than last year.
However, our country, the problem of food security is not threatened, experts believe. Most of the key positions of the needs of the domestic market is carried out either completely, or almost completely. Thus, the share of Russian products in the total resources of the internal market by the end of 2019 grains exceeded 99%, sugar and potatoes – 95%, meat and meat products – 90%. For many items, domestic food production is greater than the threshold values specified in the Doctrine of food security of the country. For example, in the Sahara it amounts to 90%, grain – 95%, meat – 85%. Thus it is necessary to consider the presence of the state reserve in case of any disasters.
Agriculture is one of the few industries that the pandemic has not touched directly, recognizes a member of the agricultural Committee of the state Duma Arkady Ponomarev. In all areas of agribusiness in Russia there is a growth. And this season we have also formed a favorable prognosis in terms of gross harvest of grain, oilary cultures. Increased acreage under buckwheat, rice, corn, oats, vegetables and potatoes. “To thwart these plans will, I think, only superpotencia circumstances. Therefore, the relative volumes of domestically produced and imported products to the population not to worry”, – said the Deputy.
agree With him and the Director of the Institute of agricultural research Eugenia Serova. However, it notes that the country’s food security, besides food availability, there are two characteristics – economic accessibility (that is, the ability of the population to purchase this food), as well as the safety and quality of food. In this sense, we may have problems. It is now clear that after the pandemic the incomes of the majority of the population worldwide will fall. And measures to be taken in this direction are already in the field of social policy is necessary to support the population, the expert believes.
I Agree in it, and Arkady Ponomarev: in this situation it is necessary to modderators, and at the same time to stimulate the economy. In this sense, there is nothing more effective than programme food aid to the poor and procurement for state needs, not invented, he said. We will remind, the program of ration cards was proposed in 2015, but was never implemented due to the lack of funds in the budget. In April, heads of industry associations urged the Russian authorities to return to this idea. According to experts, to card in the amount of 10 thousand rubles per month could get 10 million Russians, before year-end will require 800 billion rubles. Meanwhile, no response yet from the Federal government is not followed.
as for the Russian agriculture, the consequences COVID-19 sector can have great prospects for development. In some segments it is still on imports – for example, in the production of beef, raw milk, dairy products, vegetables, said the head of industry expertise Center “Rosselkhozbank” Andrew Dalnov, the Weakening of the ruble makes imported goods less attractive and, thereby, increases the investment attractiveness of projects in these sectors in the country. According to the expert, for self-sufficiency of the Russian market for milk will need to be operational farms with a total capacity of 3 million tonnes of raw materials per year. And in order to provide themselves with fruit, you need to plant 60 thousand hectares of gardens of intensive type.
Experts admit that the consequences COVID will make Russian agriculture more and more popular in the world market. Our key export products – agricultural raw materials, fish and seafood, oils and oilseeds agriculture, shows good dynamics, the export of poultry and pork, said Daria Snitko. Eugene CoEROVA calls “a miracle” the recent launch of export of poultry, pork and even beef. “A country that has never produced beef cattle, suddenly began to export beef. It is like Vietnam never produced coffee, suddenly became the second exporter of this product,” says the expert.
however, to exaggerate the potential of the Russian agroexpert not worth it, said Snitko. According to the Center for economic forecasting of Gazprombank, the export of goods in the current year can not fall, because world trade will decline by 6-7% at least. “In these circumstances, export growth, including agricultural, will be a very big success”, – says Daria Snitko. Perhaps, the share of grain will rise in total export revenue, but a radical jump is no need to wait, said Eugenia Serova. In the last couple of years agroeksport was about 24 billion dollars. While exports of energy – 290 billion. And even a collapse in prices and volume this year reduced the rate to 130-150 billion., that five times more AgroExport. Grain exports in 2019 amounted to less than $ 8 billion. “Therefore, it is unlikely that the grain can become a commodity number one,” sums up Daria Snitko.
“We should not rely on any other raw needle. The economy needs to develop differentiated,” says Arkady Ponomarev. Of course, we should “exploit” the grain. But it should be understood that the future will be derived from grain with a higher added value. “High-tech products will be the currency of the future”, – said the expert.
