The phrase “Don’t California my Texas” has gained popularity among Texas Republicans who are concerned about the impact of Californian migrants on the state’s political landscape. However, research conducted by a team from the University of Maryland and UT-Austin suggests that the influx of Californians may not be causing a significant shift towards a blue wave in Texas.
According to data reporter Matt Zdun, the research team tracked individuals who had voted in California between 2000 and 2016 and then moved to Texas, becoming registered voters by the 2020 election. The team analyzed party registration trends in California and Texas to determine the political affiliations of those relocating to the Lone Star State.
Contrary to popular belief, the research indicates that there is not a clear blue wave occurring in Texas due to Californian migration. In fact, the data shows that more Republicans are moving to Texas than Democrats. With over 18 million registered voters in Texas, the researchers argue that a significant partisan divide would be needed to trigger a noticeable shift in the state’s political landscape.
One example cited by Zdun is Williamson County in the Austin metro area, where nearly 30,000 Californian voters relocated. Despite the county voting for Biden in 2020 by a narrow margin after previously supporting Republican candidates, a large percentage of the Californian migrants were registered Republicans. This case study highlights the complexity of political shifts at the local level.
The narrative of Californians turning Texas blue persists, but Zdun suggests that economic reasons are often the primary motivation for Californians choosing to move to Texas. While political beliefs may influence where individuals settle within the state, the data indicates that the overall impact on Texas politics may be less significant than commonly perceived.
Ultimately, the research underscores the importance of considering multiple factors, including party affiliation, migration patterns, and local dynamics, when analyzing the potential impact of Californian migration on Texas politics. While the presence of Californians in Texas is notable, the data suggests that the state’s political landscape is influenced by a complex interplay of factors beyond just migration from blue states like California.
