MOSCOW, 10 APR — RIA Novosti. international consulting company McKinsey &Company presented an overview of “the Influence COVID-19 on the Russian economy”, which addresses different scenarios, according to RBC.
the Baseline scenario assumes that the economy after the failure will return to pre-crisis level (end of 2019) in mid-2021. It is possible, provided that Russia can stabilize the situation with the spread of the coronavirus to the end of the second quarter. In this case, GDP will shrink by 3.8%.
the Adverse scenario provides for delayed recovery and return to pre-crisis level in mid-2023. In this case, the fall in GDP is 10.2% and the world economy will be in a protracted recession. The peak of the crisis will occur in the first quarter of 2021, when GDP will fall by 14%.
As explained RBC in the McKinsey document was compiled at the end of March, this is an interim version, which will update with new developments: extending working days before the end of April (for a negative Outlook) and laying in a budget of 1.4 trillion rubles to combat the effects of the epidemic (positive for the forecast).
according to analysts At McKinsey, the crisis caused by the pandemic coronavirus may prove to be a “sharp blow” to the global economy since the Second world war.
last week President Vladimir Putin took the decision to extend the state of non-working days, due situation with the spread of coronavirus to 30 April inclusive, with preservation of wages. Small and medium businesses must provide deferred taxes for six months, the bankruptcy will temporarily impose a moratorium.
the government and the Central Bank will continue to develop additional measures for sustainable development of the real sector of the economy.
