Italy’s government crisis has consequences for the euro and Europe as a whole. In a new election in Rome, EU-sceptical forces could come to power, threatening European cohesion in the middle of Moscow’s war against Ukraine.
Vladimir Putin’s aide Dmitry Medvedev craved an increasingly leaderless Europe and got what he wanted from Rome. As the Italian government crisis approached a first climax, the Vice Chairman of the Russian Security Council published photos of the outgoing British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, who was ready to give up, on the Telegram news service. Gleefully, the Russian added an image with a shadow outline and a question mark, symbolizing the question, “Who’s next?”
While Ukraine is fighting for its survival against the Russian aggressor and is urgently dependent on Western support, three major European democracies and important supporters of Kiev are uncertain about their political ability to act. French President Emmanuel Macron was re-elected but lost the parliamentary majority. Johnson is only in office on an interim basis, and the race to find his successor is in full swing. And now Draghi has finally fallen, for many at home and abroad one of the last guarantors of political stability that Italy still has to show.
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Italian media held a ostracism of the conditions in Rome: “It is as if an abyss had opened up, into which that large part of Italy, which was ready to make sacrifices to get in To regain credibility in Europe and in the world, thanks to the trust placed at all levels in the man who left the stage yesterday,” lamented the daily La Stampa. The newspaper Corriere della Sera wrote of an “urge to self-destruction to which even the best fall victim”.
In Italy there is a fear that Draghi’s departure could have direct consequences for the EU’s corona reconstruction funds, which Brussels is transferring to Rome. They are bound by reform conditions, the fulfillment of which seems doubtful without the former President of the European Central Bank at the head of government.
The CSU finance expert in the European Parliament, Markus Ferber, accuses the masterminds of the crisis in Rome of playing a “high risk game”. In his estimation, they shouldn’t imagine that the money from Brussels just keeps flowing, no matter what they’re up to. If the reform conditions are not met, “then I will be the first to ensure that the money tap is turned off towards Italy,” announces the economic policy spokesman for the conservative group of the European People’s Party (EPP) in the European Parliament in an interview with FOCUS Online.
In addition to the heavily indebted Italian national budget, the euro area could also be sucked into the government crisis in Rome. Italian government bonds have already come under pressure, with the country’s ability to fund its debt repayments on acceptable terms. The Milan Stock Exchange reacted to Draghi’s failure with price declines. “Italy is one of the largest and most important economies. Instability in Italy can lead to insecurity in the entire euro zone,” worries the head of the German Green Party in the European Parliament, Rasmus Andresen. “Italy’s crisis must not become a euro crisis.”
Even an EU crisis is conceivable. Because the polls indicate that right-wing to ultra-right-wing parties could benefit from a new election in Italy, which is now likely to happen at the beginning of autumn. With more than 20 percent, the post-fascist Fratelli d’Italia (“Brothers of Italy”) are currently at the forefront of the voters’ favour, the right-wing populists of the Lega bring it to 15 percent.
Both parties are no longer propagating Italy’s exit from the EU, but their radical restructuring. Political proximity to Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban and the French Rassemblement National under Marine Le Pen is unmistakable, as are points of contact with the national conservative PiS in Poland, the right-wing populists from Vox in Spain and the German AfD.
At the head of the “brothers” is a sister, Giorgia Meloni, who is also president of the “European Conservatives and Reformists”. In the European Parliament, they represent a 64-member group dominated by PiS and Fratelli and are against a “European superstate”. Meloni advocates a “confederate Europe of free and sovereign states”. She is accused of not having sufficiently and credibly distanced herself from fascism.
One of the most outspoken warnings in the European Parliament against a new government in Italy dominated by the ultra-right is the Green Andresen. In his eyes, it would be an “additional factor of instability” in Europe and would “not act in a constructive European manner”. According to Orban, under her leadership in the dispute over compliance with the rule of law in the EU, an alliance “that is moving in a different direction” could emerge, in line with Orban.
CSU man Ferber still hopes that Italian President Sergio Mattarella could help ensure that “no major anti-European blunders are made” in Rome. Immediately after Draghi’s withdrawal, it was unclear whether and how he would get involved in the election campaign that was now likely to begin in Italy and perhaps still throw his high personal reputation into the balance.
