Donald Trump could run for the US presidency again in 2024. According to a poll, he has strong support from Republicans. What’s more, the current litigation has the potential to spur his return to the White House.
These are the questions that are currently hanging over America and therefore also over the entire West: Will the man who wanted to falsify the results of the 2020 presidential election, who threatened to dissolve the world’s most powerful military alliance and who was flirting with Vladimir Putin, decide to run again?
And if so, is it possible to stop him? The timing for these questions may seem premature. But despite his poor record in office and his unscrupulous behavior in the wake of losing the election, Donald Trump’s influence in the Republican Party has grown.
Now save articles for later in “Pocket”.
Liz Cheney’s crushing defeat in this week’s Wyoming primary plays an important role because it deprives Congress of a bold, principled conservative — and because the outcome follows a pattern. Not every Trump-backed candidate has won his primaries.
However, most of them prevailed. His influence is perhaps even more evident in the fact that many of the losing candidates also sought Trump’s support. These competitions weren’t about various conservative currents, but about which candidate is most likely to represent MAGA (“Make America Great Again”).
Eight of the 10 Republicans in the House of Representatives who voted to impeach the president on January 6, 2021 have either retired or been defeated in the primary.
At the same time, key election administration positions in some states are being filled by individuals who support Trump’s dangerous allegations of voter fraud in 2020.
Surf tip: You can find all the news about the corona pandemic in the FOCUS Online news ticker
Initial polls of who Republican voters want to see as their lead candidate in 2024 suggest about 50 percent of respondents support Trump.
In an electoral system where a candidate with a solid 30 percent support can knock out most of the competition in the first shortlist, that’s an impressive starting position.
A few months ago, Republican voters weary of Trump seemed to be switching to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis or some other no-drama offering MAGA. Meanwhile, DeSantis is more likely to find that his best shot at the White House is running for vice president at Trump’s side.
There is still a lot of leeway before the first Republican primaries. However, as long as Trump doesn’t rescind his candidacy or is otherwise prevented from doing so, all looks set for his victory in the Republican nomination. And that leads to the second question: Can you stop him?
A major obstacle is the law. The latest of many investigations Trump is facing broke earlier this month when the FBI knocked on the door in Mar-a-Lago. Much is still unclear.
According to the search warrant that was released, the Justice Department was looking for confidential documents Trump had taken from the White House. Once the investigation is complete, Attorney General Merrick Garland could declare the files safe and finish his job.
Whether there will be criminal prosecution may also depend on the degree of secrecy of the documents. Meanwhile, many Republicans, including DeSantis, have sided with Trump.
The strongest voices are calling for Garland to be impeached and for the FBI to be cut off – a double standard given that they wanted Hillary Clinton jailed for using a private e-mail server.
However, Democrats should remember that the precedent goes two ways: In 2016, the Justice Department declined to prosecute Hillary Clinton.
There are three other equally uncertain investigations at play: whether Trump made false statements on his tax returns, whether he broke the law on Jan. 6, and whether he was involved in a criminal conspiracy to rig an election in Fulton County, Georgia, in November 2020 .
Like everyone else, Trump has the presumption of innocence. His opponents should be careful not to repeat old mistakes: they kept hoping that something, anything (the Mueller report, the first impeachment trial, the second impeachment trial) would wipe Trump out of the picture. But he’s still there.
In fact, all of this litigation increases Trump’s incentive to run. Away from politics, he is just a private individual with various criminal proceedings. As long as he’s running as a possible president, he’s at the head of a movement that won 74 million votes in the last election.
Then Garland and other investigators would be faced with an unenviable choice: either try a presidential candidate or choose not to uphold the rule of law. An indictment or even a conviction could spur Trump’s return.
A revenge spree in retaliation for his persecution by the legal system would unleash Trump’s worst instincts and do further damage to American institutions.
In earlier times, American corporate influence might have contributed to Trump’s rollback. But the political clout of big business is waning as the Republican Party becomes a coalition of white workers and increasingly conservative Hispanics.
This movement rises not only against foreign entanglements, illegal immigration, and austerity measures on health and social security, but also against trade and the left-wing identity politics pursued by the global managerial elite.
Many Republicans believe the party has served the interests of the S
What’s left of the Republican establishment is behaving like a government-in-exile, lamenting Trump’s takeover but lacking the resources to counteract it.
If neither his own party nor the law can stop Trump, then what? Compensatory justice suggests Cheney’s candidacy for the Oval Office to poach Republican voters who dislike having a cross next to a Democrat’s name.
If enough of them in the red states change their minds in a close race, it could prevent Trump from winning the electoral college. Even better, however, would be trust in the common sense of the American people. It’s easy to overlook the fact that Trump is losing elections.
During his four-year presidency, his party lost both congressional elections and the White House. The majority of voters have now recognized his dangerous and undemocratic attitude and reject him as president. Why Trump fights so vehemently against the credibility of the ballot box lies in the knowledge that it can defeat him.
The article first appeared in The Economist under the title “Will Donald Trump run again?” and was translated by Cornelia Zink.
The article “Trump’s opponents should beware of repeating an old mistake” comes from The Economist.
