Douglas London was a CIA agent in Russia. He speaks the language, knows the country and knows how secret service officers tick. For him, former KGB lieutenant colonel and current President Vladimir Putin is like a shark that has to move constantly to survive.
When John Williams composed the leitmotif for Jaws, he says he had in mind an “instinct-driven, relentless, unstoppable” hunter. It is said that director Spielberg burst out laughing when his film’s composer first played the meager, albeit menacing, two notes: du-dum. He thought it was a joke.
The situation is similar with Vladimir Putin. The Russian dictator has spoken out the threats loudly and unequivocally on several occasions that he has seen, including his inflammatory speech at the 2007 Munich Security Conference. “No one in the world feels safe!” he shouted, visibly excited, in the large hall of the Hotel Bayerischer Hof. you-dum.
Despite the Russian invasion of Georgia a year later or the annexation of Crimea in 2014, nobody saw the pale Kremlin ruler as the relentless, unstoppable hunter. Only when rockets fell in Kyiv at the end of February 2022 and Russian troops were already stationed in the suburbs of the Ukrainian capital did the West seem to wake up with the sudden realization: Putin is evil!
Now, disregarding George W. Bush’s “Axis of Evil,” evil is not usually a political category. It denotes a negative characteristic of a person. But what kind of person is Putin – and if so, how many? “To understand Putin, one must understand the mindset of a predatory intelligence agent,” writes Douglas London in an op-ed for Just Security, a US expert magazine on national security and foreign policy issues.
For London, who says he has spent most of his CIA career tracking Putin-era Russian intelligence officers, “Putin is like a shark that has to move constantly to survive.” Except in his case, the reason Putin is a constantly moving object is because he trumps his failures, twists the narrative in his favor, and keeps his opponents in check.
London writes that it is not in his nature to pause, reflect and adjust judiciously to changing circumstances, or to be swayed by experts he should respect. “Rather, Putin is proud of his ability to switch spontaneously and go it alone without ever showing weakness or even fear.”
Putin will therefore be inclined to tackle anything that might overshadow his misfortune and make others forget the burning houses in his wake. “But the more he rages and threatens, the more we know that Putin is fighting, weak and threatened. A dangerous time, yes, but one that also offers opportunities for the West.”
Just to remind you: in his big television speech almost exactly a month ago, Putin not only announced partial mobilization and the deployment of 300,000 reservists, but also threatened to use his tactical nuclear weapons. He followed up on his announcements: “I don’t bluff!”
If you say you’re not bluffing, you’re usually bluffing. But what if someone says they’re not bluffing and then actually doesn’t? No one can crawl into Putin’s head. However, ex-CIA agent London can explain the trials and tribulations of the former KGB lieutenant colonel and later FSB boss in an understandable way. How strong or weak is the Kremlin ruler really? “Putin does not need to win in Ukraine to survive, but he cannot afford to lose,” writes London.
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Even if he had to suffer the humiliation of losing the eastern Ukrainian provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk, most of which he controlled for years before the general attack in February this year and which he recently wanted to “annex” as Russian territories in mock referendums, Putin could survive , says Douglas London, who today teaches, among other things, “Intelligence Studies” at Georgetown University in Washington.
“But he cannot survive losing Crimea if Ukraine threatens to take it back.” Crimea is very important to Putin. “Her permanent whereabouts played no small part in his decision to embark on this disastrous adventure. For Putin, Crimea belongs to Russia.” That’s the only reason why he had the enormously expensive bridge over the Kerch Strait built. The bridge that was severely damaged by several explosive devices on October 8th and enraged the dictator.
According to London, anyone who wants to understand Putin and assess how far he is willing to go must be clear about three key points:
Putin’s logic is simple: it’s all about him, about the blind, submissive obedience of his court and about regaining control. There are no rules, only consequences that determine his calculations. “In Putin’s eyes, the rules of the post-war order were set up by an elitist West to oppress and humiliate his country – without considering that his country helped shape that order and those rules and participated in them for a long time – leaving him with no obligation whatsoever to respect them or the words and treaties of his predecessors,” writes London.
London’s assessment of Putin’s troops is also interesting. According to the ex-CIA man, the Russian head of state and its own armed forces are not green. “As a Cold War-era KGB officer, he was instilled with a deep distrust of the armed forces.” His micromanagement of the Russian military campaign, his disinterest in the catastrophic casualties, and his reliance on the Federal Security Service (FSB) for his war in Chechnya and his initial strategy in Ukraine reflected this attitude.
As far as the use of nuclear weapons is concerned, the former secret service officer gives little hope. Writing for Just Security, London writes: “If Putin is like others of his generation and profession – and his behavior suggests it – he will use nuclear, chemical or biological weapons if he believes that is the only way.” is to maintain his power as dissent within his own ranks grows and military options dwindle.” For Putin, that means curbing Western support for Ukraine and demonstrating strength, control and invincibility at home.
London characterizes the Russian warmonger as Putin being dangerous but not ruthless or even mentally unbalanced, although he would like to be seen in the same way by fearful and insecure opponents. “Indeed, Putin has been nothing but predictable and consistent, and has betrayed his true intentions for years.” Du-dum.
Another important question is what an end to the war might look like and how it might be achieved. London also has an answer to that. He writes that intelligence officials are trained to prepare for the worst because they are unable to control all variables. And therein lies the opportunity for the West, which, however, involves difficult decisions.
“That choice is not to look the other way, not just to keep up the pressure against him, but to increase it.” and thus the stakes are increased. Rather, the quality and quantity of arms, training and intelligence support for Ukraine should be increased in order to reclaim its territory and exact an unsustainable price for Putin’s campaign.”
In addition, the West should:
According to Douglas London, it has not escaped Putin’s attention how poorly the Russian forces fare against the far smaller Ukrainian force, even if the latter is armed with sophisticated Western weaponry and an unbreakable determination. Ukrainians are fighting what they see as an existential struggle worth their lives. “Russian soldiers are only fighting to survive and get home,” writes the longtime CIA official. “If Putin didn’t know this when he started the campaign, he certainly does now.”
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