Let’s call it the Hanover-Berlin paradox: it’s possible that a social democratic election victory in Hanover will make life more difficult for a social democratic head of government in Berlin. One of Olaf Scholz’s coalition partners is responsible for this.
Of course, it would be great if Olaf Scholz could now claim that his party friend Stefan Weil’s election victory in Hanover was a result of Olaf Scholz’s work in Berlin. Well, the opposite is the case: Stefan Weil didn’t win his election because of Scholz, but in spite of Scholz.
Under Stefan Weil’s undisputed leadership, the SPD in Lower Saxony has been breaking away from the federal SPD, which has been rated ever weaker, for weeks. If Weil had been as unpopular as Scholz, the new government in Lower Saxony could have been formed by the CDU man Bernd Althusmann, who has since resigned.
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Ever since his traffic light government came into existence, Olaf Scholz has done a lot to keep this coalition of two unequal camps together. His special attention and almost loving care is given to the FDP – that partner who actually – that is: programmatically – does not belong to Red-Green.
This became most obvious when the Red and Greens took Christian Lindner’s tax policy under continuous fire and one man demonstratively supported his government colleague: Olaf Scholz, when he approved the liberal finance minister’s plans for a tax reform in the cold progression.
This will now become more difficult. This is due to the successful performance of the SPD and the Greens in the state elections in Germany’s second-largest area. On the one hand. And on the other hand the weak performance of the FDP. The feelings of triumph of the Reds and Greens and the existential fears of the Liberals are likely to become equally dangerous for the Social Democratic Chancellor.
This could be observed in three central policy areas:
First: When dealing with Expensive Germany.
Even the debate about the gas price brake will show how the Berlin coalition will deal with each other in the future. Apart from the infantile language announcement by Olaf Scholz for a “double boom”, there has been little concrete so far. That could change within days. Toxic distribution and justice debates are likely to follow. Including the new edition of the classic: debt brake.
Secondly, when dealing with Ukraine.
The FDP will increase its pressure on Scholz to finally deliver battle tanks to the invaded country. And at the same time publicly target the forces in the Social Democrats who are campaigning for peace with Russia because, as SPD parliamentary group leader Rolf Mützenich argues, Germany simply cannot change its geography.
Thirdly, when dealing with the refugees.
Will the 2015 crisis repeat itself? Germany’s municipalities, but also the Federal Police and the German Police Union fear such a “loss of control”. The reason for this is the rapidly increasing number of refugees. The Young Socialists, the strongest group within the SPD parliamentary group, are already taking a stand against the privileging of Ukrainian refugees.
The Ukrainians in Germany are not treated as refugees, but as recognized asylum seekers. They get more money and better health care. You will receive the higher basic security instead of the lower allowance from the Asylum Seekers Benefits Act. The Jusos would like to end this unequal treatment in favor of the – predominantly Islamic – refugees from countries outside Europe such as Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq.
The FDP is strictly against it.
That is, as the 2015 debates about Angela Merkel’s “We can do it” show, the stuff that profound coalition conflicts are made of.
This Lower Saxony election was followed by uncomfortable weeks for the social democratic Chancellor. Above all is the question:
Will he still be able to hold his coalition of the unequal together now, in ever more difficult times and a winter of hardship?
Amid the energy crisis, people are looking for alternatives to gas. Firewood is now in high demand. This causes some consumers to panic buy.
