Anyone who listened closely to Olaf Scholz’s government statement noticed that the Chancellor drew a scenario in two essential points that goes far beyond the Ukraine war, both in terms of time and geography. What awaits us Germans and the whole world will be dirty – and expensive.
These are days of a turning point, to use the Olaf Scholz word. It’s no longer just about heavy weapons for Ukraine or sanctions against the Russians. The Ukraine war has consequences that go far beyond the contested territory.
On Wednesday, the Chancellor’s government statement was the focus of everyone’s interest in political Berlin. And Olaf Scholz used this to draw a scenario in two essential points that goes far beyond the Ukraine war, both in terms of time and geography.
Point one: How long this war will last is not foreseeable at all, no expert can judge this. Possibly for years, NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg recently said. And yet Olaf Scholz is already talking about the reconstruction of the battered Ukraine.
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The chancellor came up with a term for this that has a promising ring to German ears in particular: the Marshall Plan. This reconstruction plan by the American Secretary of State at the time marked the beginning of the return of Nazi Germany, which had been defeated in World War II, to the circle of democracies. That’s one. The other thing: the German economic miracle started with the Marshallpan, the European Recovery Program.
In other words: Even if there is much that cannot be compared between defeated Germany and Ukraine that is still fighting, Scholz would like to see post-war prospects for Ukraine like Germany had. A remarkable event – especially when you consider that the war is continuing with undiminished severity and it is unpredictable how it will end and how Ukraine will get out of this situation that threatens its very existence.
With the word about the Marshall Plan, Scholz sent a threefold signal: to Ukraine, which he wants to encourage. In the direction of the western allies, whom he wants to attune to a long-term commitment. And towards the German population.
As a reminder: Even if the lion’s share of the Marshall Plan funds were loans at the time – a sum was spent that, extrapolated today, would result in a burden of almost 150 billion euros. Whereby you have to see that this sum is not the reconstruction money, but the “lever” for the reconstruction money. If you bring in 150 billion seed capital, you are good for a trillion loan on the capital market.
In his government statement in the Bundestag, Scholz spoke of a “generational task” – which raises the question: Will the Germans stick around for so many years to rebuild Ukraine and integrate it into the western community of states?
Point two: Scholz said a sentence in the Bundestag that you could only hear from the mouth of the green leadership. It reads: A partnership with Vladimir Putin’s “aggressive and imperialist” Russia is “absolutely unimaginable” in the foreseeable future. Now, however, German fate will not be decided in Germany alone.
On the same day that Scholz excluded Putin from the circle of countries eligible for credit for Germany – a Social Democratic chancellor of all people – Putin announced a completely new orientation of his economic and trade policy. Namely the so-called Brics countries: Brazil, India, China and South Africa.
These countries did not condemn Russia for the Ukraine war. In turn, Olaf Scholz, as host of the G7 summit at Schloss Elmau, invited the representatives of these countries: India, South Africa, Indonesia, Senegal and Argentina.
The architecture competition for the world of tomorrow has just started. The countries that Scholz invited for this weekend are democracies. Which, however, see India and South Africa, does not necessarily mean that they will automatically side with democracy in a war.
Both the German Chancellor and the Russian President have understood that these countries are firstly pursuing their own national interests and secondly want to be courted and won over as partners. And with the struggle for alliances and global zones of influence, it is likely to be tough in the next few years. Not to say: quite dirty too, which was almost always the case when the world was redivided after drastic events such as wars.
Two other events show at least once that it is no pathetic exaggeration to speak of a reorganization of the world these days: two countries, Sweden and Finland, are changing nothing less than their state doctrine in order to, after decades of neutrality, under the impression of Russian aggression turn to NATO.
And for the first time, another Asian front-line state is taking part in a NATO summit: South Korea will be there next week when the western defense alliance meets for what is likely to be a memorable session. In the midst of these major changes, it almost seems secondary that another event of importance for Europe will take place on Thursday:
At the EU-Western Balkans summit, an attempt will be made to pave the way for North Macedonia and Albania to join the European Union at least once. These two countries have been waiting for it for 20 (!) years now. Two recent events show why it is taking so long. First, Greece prevented North Macedonia from joining, whose resistance only ended when Macedonia changed its state name to North Macedonia (Greece wanted to make it clear that Macedonia is part of Greece.) Bulgaria is currently blocking North Macedonia’s accession – and Scholz hopes that its resistance will be closed by Thursday will be overcome.
What the German Christian Democrats will then have played a silent part in – the resistance comes less from the Bulgarian President than from his Christian Democratic opposition, which makes his political (survival) difficult if not impossible.
Conclusion, what the war in Ukraine changed everything:
At least let’s be glad that we don’t have to go hungry like the people in those countries that depend on Ukrainian wheat. And who Putin has made his hostages.
