Russia is not against peace talks, Putin said in his recent speech. However, the longer it takes to get there, the more difficult it becomes. With his aggressive speech, Russia’s president addressed two people at once: the home front; and the west. He set a nasty trap for the latter.
Russia now has three levers that make it tactically strong. Even if you don’t like it. The reason why Russia now has several options: The West has fallen into a triple trap. Russia’s first lever: gas. The second: “Peace”. The third: partner.
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Let’s start with the last point. The West planned to isolate the Russians internationally through sanctions and a moralizing of the conflict (it was about a “rule of law”). That was also the Federal Foreign Minister’s plan, which is why she flew to the foreign ministers’ meeting in Bali. One should not let Russia take the stage.
In the meantime it has become clear: the isolation has failed. Russia’s Foreign Minister Lavrov was not condemned by his Indonesian colleague, who chaired the meeting. Her statement remained ambiguous: It was “our” responsibility to ensure peace. Our?
Apparently there is not even a consensus among the G-20 countries as to who the aggressor is. The West thinks that is clear. The G-7 summit in Elmau reached an agreement accordingly. Only: The West is the West. The west is not the world.
Lavrov spoke to his Chinese as he did to his Turkish colleague. The Chinese are opponents of America, the leading Western power, and the Turks are engaged in seesaw politics to show that they are needed. That is the constant in President Erdogan’s foreign policy: he makes himself important. Currently as a wheat supplier for the rest of the world (Irony out.)
Brazil’s President Bolsonaro, with his rainforest interests in mind, publicly takes Putin’s side. The western sanctions have failed, says the southpaw. What doesn’t make things any better: The Brics countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) are currently trying to establish themselves as a counterweight to the western G7.
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Conclusion: The West will not be able to isolate Putin diplomatically, and thus economically, as he intended.
Regarding the gas: Nord Stream 1 will be closed from Monday: “Maintenance work”. That’s not the bad thing. The question is: will this scheduled maintenance work end in two weeks as planned? Or are there “complications”? Or will Russia consider making a thoroughly poisoned offer to the West, which is as dependent on Russian gas as a junkie is on the next shot.
Something like this: Unfortunately, pipeline 1 is broken. Why don’t you open Pipeline 2 and the gas will run as usual again. Maybe even like before the war – 100 and not just 60 percent. With such an offer, about which the Federal Economics Minister Robert Habeck recently complained anxiously, Putin would do what he likes to do best – throw a propaganda grenade into German society. If Germany agreed to this, the West could capitulate right away. If not, something like a yellow vest movement could emerge in Germany.
Conclusion: The West is still stuck in the gas trap, fear of winter is rampant among the population and the federal government. If Russia gets it right, Germany will be in a classic dilemma. A dilemma that is likely to be very expensive to resolve.
Finally, case number three: negotiations. Moscow does not reject peace negotiations. “But those who refuse should know that the further they go, the harder it is for them to come to an agreement with us,” Putin said tentatively in his speech. With that, Putin is waving to the west. And finds listeners, and by no means only in the AfD and the Left Party, which advocates an end to western sanctions and the launch of Nord Stream 2. In any case, “Pioneer” quotes his interview partner, the Saxon Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer, as follows: Without gas from Russia, the basis for German prosperity would collapse, which is why there must now be a ceasefire and negotiations with Putin. A position popular in East Germany.
The Chancellor has said that Germany will be able to maintain its position of helping Ukraine for a long time to come if necessary. However, Scholz also pointed out that a government depends on popular approval.
Conclusion: Negotiations, as Putin understands them, are poisonous bait. However, that doesn’t mean at all that it won’t be swallowed up in Germany at some point. Based on personal conversations, one can assume that not only TV-loving peace professors advocate for the fastest possible negotiations, but also medium-sized companies who are concerned about the future of their company.
