China is watching developments in the Ukraine war and the West’s sanctions policy very closely – because of its own conflict with Taiwan. Beijing also wants to use military means to achieve unification with Taiwan, which wants to remain an independent state. And that could happen sooner than many believe.

When the Russian blitzkrieg against Kyiv to take power in the Ukraine failed, this was not only registered with astonishment in Moscow, but also in Beijing. A few days earlier, Russia and China had signed an agreement that was intended to further deepen bilateral relations, especially in the area of ​​energy supplies. The two Presidents Xi and Putin promised each other unbreakable cohesion. Even later, China did not condemn the Russian attack on Ukraine, although respect for territorial sovereignty is one of the values ​​of Chinese foreign policy that is upheld.

Now save articles for later in “Pocket”.

Because China wants to refrain from any interference in its relations with Taiwan, which it does not see as its own state, but as a breakaway part of China. Parallels to Russia’s attitude towards Ukraine, which Putin also denied as having its own statehood and sovereign existence, are superficial. Ukraine is a fully internationally recognized state. Even Russia recognized them.

Taiwan, on the other hand, is not recognized by the vast majority of countries because China ensures that these countries follow a one-China policy. This also applies to the USA and the European countries that have committed themselves to the One China policy. Except Lithuania. A representative office of Taiwan was opened there, whereupon China struck Lithuania from the customs register. This means that Lithuania no longer exists for China. On Taiwan, the Chinese leadership draws a red line and reacts immediately and harshly. Only eight countries officially recognize Taiwan, and the country is not represented in the United Nations. But the US has been obliged since 1979 to assist Taiwan in its self-defense.

The United States has long been considering when China will use military means to implement the unification with Taiwan, which failed peacefully due to Taiwan’s refusal to remain an independent state. It seems certain that this will happen. But when?

In that decade, the response heard from Washington before the war in Ukraine was such that by 2049 – the centenary of the People’s Republic of China – the military conflict and responses to it will be forgotten. Meanwhile, some observers in Washington involved with China policy appear to see earlier action as more likely in the next eighteen months, the New York Times reported. Because one lesson from the war against Ukraine is that it is important to strike early and hard in order not to be drawn into a long war of attrition in which the opposing side’s forces are reinforced by international support.

Prof. Dr. Thomas Jäger has held the Chair for International Politics and Foreign Policy at the University of Cologne since 1999. His research focuses on international relations and American and German foreign policy.

The fact that these considerations are relevant right now is due to the coincidence of two events, both of which are not yet certain to occur. One is that Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi wants to visit Taiwan. The last time there was such a high-ranking visit was in 1997, when Speaker Newt Gingrich was received there. Pelosi holds the third position in the state after President Biden and Vice President Harris. Whether she really visits Taiwan has not yet been confirmed. President Binden urged them not to do so. China reacted sharply to the announcement. That leads to the dilemma. Because if Pelosi doesn’t drive now, it will be said that China has prevailed, which Democrat Pelosi will hear from Republicans every day. If she drives, however, she puts President Xi in a difficult position.

Because Xi wants to start a third term as party leader and president in the fall. His predecessors resigned after two terms. Xi wants to stay, preferably for life. It would be difficult for him to be presented by an American politician during the preparatory talks for the party conference, which are due in August. Because that’s how Pelosi’s Taiwan visit to China would surely be portrayed. Xi must therefore be strong on the inside, and that could trigger reactions that have a high potential for escalation. For example, if China escorts Pelosi’s plane with fighter jets or massively violates Taiwan’s air sovereignty, the situation could spiral out of control and escalate.

In the USA, this situation is again assessed against the background of the knowledge gained from the war in Ukraine. Because China could be inclined to take military action against Taiwan before the country arms itself further. The Chinese calculation could be that Taiwan could only get stronger in the future: through longer military service, more intensive reserve exercises and better equipment for the armed forces. China is certainly noticing that the armaments industry production is being judged in the USA and Europe, because the conflict over the European state order, which is currently being fought in Ukraine, will entail more intensive training of the armed forces. From a Chinese point of view, the assessment could be that the balance of power is shifting in favor of Taiwan over time.

Not only the war in Ukraine is being evaluated in Beijing, but also the sanctions. Because it is expected that military action by China will be met with sanctions that are just as tough as they are now against Russia. They would hit China harder because the country lives far more on international exchange than Russia. This has already been severely restricted by the government’s controversial zero-Covid policy. In addition, China’s economic growth is currently too low to fulfill the promise of a rise to prosperity for all. Government crackdowns on certain industries, most notably real estate, have also caused dislocation.

The government can’t really afford another conflict if it doesn’t want to build its rule solely on repression. That is why the loss of prosperity in Russia, which is already clearly evident in industry and trade, is being closely observed. Preventing a similar development for China is in the interest of the country’s leadership. But preparing for such a situation takes time.

How to resolve the Taiwan conflict, which is on the international agenda because of China’s claim to ownership of that state, is one of the most pressing international issues. There are currently no convincing answers that could prevent a military conflict.